A quarter of the more than 3,000 mainline jets due for delivery over the next 21 months are owned and/or managed by operating lessors.
Cirium fleets data reveals that airlines globally are due to receive over 2,700 Airbus and Boeing passenger aircraft through to the end of 2021, either directly or via operating lease. This count includes an estimated 880 Boeing 737 Max deliveries during that period.
Of the 2,700 deliveries scheduled, 460 aircraft due to be delivered via a lessor. A further 350 aircraft are due to go to lessors during the period where the end-user has not been identified by Cirium.
The data from Cirium shows that over half (460 aircraft) of the 800-plus airliners scheduled are destined for four leasing companies: Air Lease (149), AerCap (126), Avolon (100) and GECAS (93).
2020-21 lessor deliveries due by company | |||
---|---|---|---|
Placed | Unplaced* | Total | |
Air Lease | 107 | 42 | 149 |
AerCap | 70 | 56 | 126 |
Avolon | 47 | 53 | 100 |
GECAS | 38 | 55 | 93 |
SMBC Aviation Capital | 48 | 33 | 81 |
BOC Aviation | 47 | 21 | 68 |
Aviation Capital Group | 22 | 17 | 39 |
CDB Aviation | 10 | 22 | 32 |
ALAFCO | 11 | 20 | 31 |
Boeing Capital | 22 | 2 | 24 |
ICBC Leasing | 18 | 0 | 18 |
VEB-Leasing | 2 | 15 | 17 |
China Aircraft Leasing | 3 | 13 | 16 |
Sberbank Leasing | 10 | 0 | 10 |
Novus Aviation | 4 | 0 | 4 |
Jackson Square Aviation | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Total | 460 | 349 | 809 |
*Where Cirium has not identified end-user | |||
Airbus/Boeing passenger aircraft deliveries due | |||
Source: Cirium fleets data (March 2020) |
Cirium data reveals that Brazilian airline Azul has the highest number of lease commitments in the near-term, with 29 leased A320 family aircraft and a single leased A330neo due over the next 21 months. Providers include AerCap, Avolon, BOC Aviation and CDB Aviation. Other large near-term lease commitments are held by Vistara (22 A320 family) and American Airlines (21 Boeing 787s).
From an aircraft-type perspective, the vast majority (88%) are single-aisles: 358 737 Max jets and 348 Airbus A320 family aircraft. The most popular widebody for delivery to lessors over the next 20 months or so is the 787, with 68 due.
2020-21 lessor deliveries due - by type | |
---|---|
737 Max | 358 |
A320 family | 348 |
787 | 63 |
A330 | 19 |
A350 | 12 |
777 | 5 |
A220 | 4 |
Total | 809 |
Airbus/Boeing passenger aircraft deliveries due | |
Source: Cirium fleets data (March 2020) |
However, the lessors’ exposure to future deliveries would normally go beyond the aircraft they have on direct order. Data from Cirium shows that traditionally around 30% of aircraft delivered each year directly to airlines are sold to a lessor and leased back to the operator at the point of title transfer.
This potentially means that it could be expected that lessors could have been exposed to another 800+ deliveries over the next 20 months – putting the possible total operating-lease commitment at 1,600 aircraft.