The world's first independent market intelligence study on single-engined military piston trainer aircraft suggests a potential $2.7 billion market over the next ten years.
However, despite the potential it warns Western aircraft manufacturers not to be complacent.
The report* was launched yesterday at the show, and anticipates the result, later this year, of the current Royal Air Force Bulldog replacement competition. This is expected to trigger an international round of military piston trainer replacement and upgrade programmes.
There are some 5,995 piston single trainers in worldwide military service today, including the Scottish Aviation Bulldog, de Havilland DHC-1 Chipmunk, Yakovlev Yak-52 and Cessna T-41D.
The study concludes there is a replacement/upgrade market of some 4,425 trainers over the next ten years.
It argues that advances in areas such as composite materials and avionics are increasingly applicable at the lower end of the military aircraft spectrum, adding that piston trainers should evolve towards more capable multi-role aircraft.
However, study director Doug McVitie says that while there is a significant opportunity, "Western manufacturers need to watch out because there is clear evidence that potential new competitors could pose a major threat."
In Russia, a new air force basic training requirement has led to contenders being offered by Sukhoi (Su-49), Technoavia (SP-95) and Yakovlev (Yak-52M and Yak-56).
"If the Russian air force requirement becomes a reality and funds can be allocated to the programme despite current strapped defence budgets, there is every chance the Russians will have a highly competitive and high-performance piston trainer available at exactly the time our study shows the market will be opening up."
* The World Military Piston Trainers Study 1997 is from the Teal Group/Arran Aerospace.
Source: Flight Daily News
