In the matter of milestones, the end of March should mark a critical moment in Europe’s bid to ensure it retains competent, competitive and independent access to space. It is then – 27 March, specifically – that Airbus Safran Launchers expects to cross “maturity gate 6”, a set of specification details that will trigger the “go” order to begin production of Ariane 6 rocket prototype equipment, leading to ground tests in 2018 in anticipation of first flight in 2020.
In September, ASL will be in position to give the order to begin production of the first flight prototype. This momentum will characterise a year which ASL chief executive Alain Charmeau describes as “absolutely key to us in terms of setting the scene for Ariane 6 marketing and sales”. Indeed, he says 2017 will see ASL make the first “firm proposals” for Ariane 6 launches.
The programme, to replace the hugely successful and reliable – but very expensive – Ariane 5 heavy-lifter and the medium-sized Soyuz with a new modular system, is a competitive response to US startup SpaceX. Ariane series rockets have orbited well over 500 satellites since 1980, including half the world’s telecommunications units, and Ariane 5 has become a byword for reliable (ASL closed 2016 with the 76th in a string of successes).
But SpaceX has combined clean-sheet design with commercial freedom to build a streamlined industrial infrastructure that gives its Falcon 9 a compelling cost advantage. Falcon 9 is smaller than Ariane 5 so direct comparison is difficult, but a flight can be bought for as little as $70 million.
Ariane 5, by contrast, is the product of an industrial infrastructure designed to satisfy the understandable European need to spread work to all the countries who contribute to the programme budget. With Ariane 6, the combination of new technology, a modular design and a rationalised industrial structure will have Ariane 6 flying for €70 million ($75 million) per outing – half the cost of an Ariane 5 lift.
ASL is the agent for that crucial rationalisation – consolidation – of the Ariane programme. A 50-50 joint venture between Airbus and Safran, the Ariane 6 prime contractor was formally created in 2016, and closed the year by buying out France’s CNES space agency to take control of Arianespace, the European launch operator. ASL, then, is responsible for the design, manufacture and operation of Ariane 6 flights, along with sales of launches.
ASL also runs the commercial risk; institutions such as the European Space Agency, Eumetsat weather service and, by extension, the European Commission have some design oversight role and guide European space policy, but are in essence customers. The days of public subsidy are ending.
Hence Charmeau says that when 2017 comes to an end he will count the year a success if these institutions have placed orders for Ariane 6 launches. “This is clearly where we need to have a step forward,” he says. Indeed, so-called “institutional launches” are Europe’s Achilles heel; where US rivals SpaceX and United Launch Alliance can count on some €5 billion spent annually on launches by NASA, the military and the NOAA weather service – and “buy American” legislation virtually eliminates foreign competition – ASL and Arianespace see only some €500-600 million. Of 86 launches worldwide last year, 11 were European and barely a quarter institutional; the US saw 22 launches, nearly two-thirds of which were institutional. ASL clearly relies on commercial sales, such as for telecommunications satellites.
For Ariane 6 and the smaller Vega C – whose solid fuel main engine will double as boosters for the larger rocket – the plan is for 16 or 17 flights yearly from the European space centre in Kourou, French Guiana. The 2016 total of 11 flights was typical of recent years, but more flights would clearly help reduce unit costs, as expenses like site maintenance would be spread out better. Charmeau says he wants to see European governments and institutions order at least five Ariane 6 and two Vega-C flights per year. That, he says, is a “key factor in guaranteeing long-term, independent access to space!”
Asked if the launch cost reduction associated with Ariane 6 will boost European institutional demand for flights, Charmeau says he hopes so, but so far has no evidence. However, he notes that there is increasing interest within Europe in space programmes, so if the launch cost is slashed there should be, in national and institutional budgets, “more room for future missions”.
Source: FlightGlobal.com
