ANALYSIS: How will airlines fund $100bn worth of new aircraft this year?

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The major airframers are set to deliver almost $100 billion worth of jet airliners in 2013 as production rates in Airbus and Boeing's plants surpass the record output of 1,190 units set last year.

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According to projections based on data from the Flightglobal Ascend Online database, almost $96 billion worth of airliners will be delivered by Airbus and Boeing in 2013 (applying 2013 full-life base values). A further $3 billion worth of metal will be shipped by Bombardier and Embraer.

"We estimate that demand for finance is up by 15% this year over 2012," says Flightglobal Ascend senior aviation analyst Rob Morris.

Airbus will again be shaded by its US rival, shipping $42 billion of assets, compared with $53 billion from Seattle. Airbus will earn more from single-aisles, delivering $24.7 billion worth of A320 family aircraft against $22.6 billion worth of 737s. But Toulouse looks set to be beaten fair and square in the more lucrative widebody arena, delivering $17.7 billion worth of A330s and A380s against an impressive tally of $30.8 billion in 747s, 767s 777s and 787s by Boeing.

Well over two-fifths of the 2013 financing requirements will be from Asia-Pacific airlines, which will take $45 billion worth of airliners. "That's 18% greater than last year," Morris points out.

Europe accounts for around a fifth ($20 billion) of the delivery financing needs, while North American carriers will need to find almost $15 billion in airliner financing this year. Morris says that the North American figure is around 40% greater than 2012.

Deliveries to Middle Eastern carriers will account for around $10 billion this year.

Morris expects that export credit agency (ECA) activity will be broadly the same as 2012: "We estimate around $24.5 billion worth of ECA financings, despite the potential increase in cost," he says.

2013 deliveries by category & region
 

Bank activity is set to increase significantly, with Asia Pacific driving much of that growth due to its greater funding requirements.

Capital market activity is set to increase by as much as 50%. This will be driven by the increased value of deliveries to North American airlines, Morris says.

"As for the assets, around 80% of deliveries will be types Ascend classes as 'liquid', and thus relatively easy to finance. That's around the same ratio as last year and on this basis we expect finance will be found for the other 20%, as it was in 2012."