For commercial engines, the focus in 2007 is expected to be on first runs, technology development and ramping up manufacturing, rather than the massive marketing drives that characterised much of 2006 and 2005. An estimated $28 billion worth of new engine sales will have been booked by the time the dust settles from the scramble in 2006 - close to 2005's record $32 billion. It is unlikely such huge order rates will be sustained in 2007, even if the long-awaited orders from the slowly recovering US majors finally begin to kick in.
The main theme is likely to be engine makers attempting to deliver on their promises of the past two years. General Electric and Rolls-Royce, for example, will both make the first test flights of their respective new engines for the Boeing 787, while building up for accelerated serial assembly. GE, in particular, faces huge challenges as it seeks to more than double output to meet demand for GE90, GEnx, CFM56, CF34 and even CF6 engines.
Rolls-Royce completed the build and test of Trent 1000 Engine 9 in late December, and is expected to ship it any time now to Waco, Texas for installation on the L-3-converted, Rolls-Royce-owned Boeing 747 flying testbed. The build-up to first flight takes place later in the first quarter, but the first few months will see hectic activity at the UK engine maker's Hucknall site, where up to six engines will be involved in tests. Early in the new year, Rolls-Royce also hopes to see the successful completion of a critical fan blade-off test with Engine 7. The maiden flight of the Rolls-Royce-powered 787 should take place at the end of August.
General Electric is expected to ship its first flight test GEnx to Victorville, California over the same period. Engine 005 is expected to fly in February on the company's 747 flying testbed, and the first two production-standard flight engines are scheduled to power the first GE-equipped 787 into the air from Everett around October. Production of GEnx engines, initially for the Boeing 787 and then for the 747-8, is due to grow from 12 production-standard units in 2007 to 163 in 2009. The GE90, led by the sales surge in the 777, is also earmarked for dramatic growth, with production rising to 170 in 2007 compared with 73 in 2005.
The year will also see increased activity from GE on definition of the GEnx version for the 747-8, plus negotiations with Airbus and its early A350 customers over how to revise the original 2005 order agreements that involved the initial versions of the GEnx for the now-redesigned Airbus twin. GE continues to shy away from offering an engine for the largest variant of the A350 XWB, for fear of threatening its own commanding lead with the GE90-powered 777 Long Range variants. Rolls-Royce, which late in 2006 signed a commercial and technical agreement with Airbus to supply engines for all versions of the A350 XWB, plans to solidify the design of its Trent XWB engine in late 2008 or early 2009, and expects to begin cutting metal for the first developmental powerplant in 2009.
The year will also see the first serious rounds in the battle over which new-generation mid-thrust engine will power the future Airbus and Boeing single-aisle designs. Pratt & Whitney aims to demonstrate its geared turbofan (GTF) concept with a full-scale ground demonstrator based on the PW6000 core.
Early application
The company, which plans flight tests in 2008, is believed to be talking to Airbus about a possible early application of the GTF on the A320 family. A production version would be based on a new core partly derived from advanced military test engines designed and run under the US government-industry integrated high-performance turbine engine technology programme.
The year should also see further hints at how GE and Snecma will respond through the CFM alliance to the GTF and whether a split response may be needed to cover the wide thrust needs of Boeing's two-pronged 737 replacement study. The smaller of these, covering the 90-110-seat range, is provisionally designed around a 14-16,000lb thrust (62-71kN) engine, which brings it more into CF34 territory. Rolls-Royce is studying solutions through its twin-spool RB282 architecture.
Also in the intermediate-thrust arena is the question of which engine will power Bombardier's on-off-on CSeries small airliner project. Pratt & Whitney Canada (P&WC) has been linked with the effort through a development of the PW800, but imminent test runs of the 14-17,500lb Powerjet SaM-146 in Russia have raised questions about the suitability of the new Snecma-NPO Saturn joint venture engine. The SaM-146 is due to make first flight tests on an Ilyushin IL-76 testbed in February, with certification due in March 2008.
Below the mid-thrust range, the hot topic of 2007 is expected to be the new 10,000lb thrust-class battle over the emerging new families of super mid-size business jets. Contenders include Honeywell with its HTF10000, Snecma with its Silvercrest engine, GE with a CF34 successor, P&WC with a new centreline engine, and Rolls-Royce with an RB282 option.
Meanwhile, the introduction of the first-generation very-light jets will see P&WC perform the most dramatic planned engine production ramp-up in peacetime as it starts to crank out PW600 engines for the Eclipse 500 and Cessna Mustang. The first eight-hour engine (assembled, tested and crated) was achieved in October and more than 500 engines were expected to have passed through the door by now.
In the military engine world, the focus is likely to be on the Lockheed MartinF-35 Joint Strike Fighter and the performance of its P&W F135 turbofan in flight tests. Away from flight work in Texas, attention will shift later in the year to budget debates over the survival of the competing GE/Rolls-Royce F136.
One other budget-related decision with possible longer-term implications in 2007 will be Saudi Arabia's decision over whether to re-engine its 70 Boeing F-15S with GE F110-129s in place of the Pratt & Whitney F100-229s because of a "sustainment problem" in the harsh operating environment in the Middle East. Although P&W will offer upgrades and a set of new engines to breach the mission dispatch shortfall, GE can almost smell a win on the desert wind. For GE, a Saudi Arabian re-engining deal would be a major boost for the F110-129.
In Europe, one of the military power highlights will be the start of flight tests of the 11,000shp (8,200kW) Europrop International (EPI) TP400-D6. Set to first fly on a specially modified C-130 testbed, the TP400 is being developed to power the Airbus Military A400M.
Source: Flight International