Julian Moxon/TOULOUSE
THIS AIRCRAFT "-will be the biggest challenge in civil-aviation history", says Jurgen Thomas, head of the new large-aircraft division of Airbus Industrie charged with developing the A3XX.
While such words invite instant disagreement from those versed in almost a century of civil-aviation development, there is little doubt that, if measured in terms of the resources needed to develop the A3XX, he is right.
In recent months, the programme has taken on a momentum of its own as Boeing roller-coasters towards the launch of its higher-capacity 747-X. The Airbus partners, long aware that the European consortium has lacked a competitor to the 747, and encouraged by feedback from the market, have finally swung into line, and are preparing to offer the A3XX in late 1998 for service entry in mid-2003.
Airbus, like Boeing, is remaining in touch with the major airlines about their ultra-high-capacity requirements, and recently convened a meeting of 13 carriers in the medieval city of Carcassonne, in the south of France, to discuss the project. The consortium has identified four principal A3XX markets: intra-Asia, transpacific, transatlantic and Europe-Asia. Three of these four feature Asia, where Airbus predicts traffic growth of 5.7% over the next 20 years, and where, uniquely in the Asia/Pacific region, it finds a capacity requirement which grows from today's average figure of 243 seats per aircraft, to 356 by the year 2014. Against this, the European requirement grows from today's 179, to 225, while that of the USA is even lower, reaching 211 seats.
In his analysis of what this means for Airbus and the A3XX, senior vice-president, commercial, John Leahy, points to a global demand for 13,360 aircraft, worth around $1,000 billion, over the next 20 years. "One-third of this will be for aircraft of more than 400 seats, where Airbus does not now compete. That is why we can't afford not to be there," he says.
A3XX ADVANTAGES
While it will be delivered at least three years later than the 520-seat Boeing 747-600X, Airbus is promoting strongly the advantages which will accrue from an all-new design leading to a family of aircraft covering eventually the 500- to 656-seat range (in typical three-class configuration). Of greatest value, says Thomas, is the lower operating costs possible with the new design. "We'll be able to offer 17% lower seat-kilometre costs than the 747-400 with the initial A3XX-100", he says, "and 23% below with the stretch -200 version".
The abandoned attempt to agree a common Very Large Capacity Aircraft programme with Boeing arguably lost Airbus two years of A3XX development time. Thomas says that the technologies needed for the aircraft are ready. "There are no show stoppers," he says. Several technology programmes have been launched to respond to specific concerns, such as the need to reduce approach noise, but areas such as the all-important wing present little problem for the partners, since they are merely new applications of technologies already in hand. Airlines have also, according to Thomas, "-made it quite clear that they wanted only those new technologies that were cost effective.
"The key, as always, is the engines", says Thomas. The requirement is for 320-356kN [72,000-80,000lb] thrust, which leaves a dilemma. "The A330 engines are adequate for the initial versions of the A3XX, but not for the growth variant, whereas the Boeing 777 engines would need to be de-rated, "-and would be too big, heavy and costly". The thrust requirement is similar to that of Boeing for its 747 derivatives, and will be almost certainly be met with a new power plant from the General Electric/ Pratt & Whitney joint venture, and by the Trent 900 development of the Rolls-Royce Trent 800 (Flight International, 12-18 June, P8).
With the stretched A3XX-200 taking seating in single-class high-density layout to almost 1,000 passengers, one of the principal concerns is meeting the certification requirement of a 90s evacuation from one side of the aircraft. The design now includes nine doors per side, and studies with the aircraft in various accident configurations, such as a collapsed nose-wheel leg (leaving aft-seated passengers some 13m above ground level) have left no concerns. "We believe we have found a solution with the life raft manufacturers," says Thomas.
The hunt for the right fuselage cross-section continues. Airbus is committed to the belief that it has beaten Boeing consistently in the battle to get its choice of fuselage section right. "We've studied more than 40 cross-sections," says Thomas. "If you get it wrong, it's wrong forever."
Lengthy discussions with airlines on the design of what Thomas says will be "the biggest passenger cabin in history", continue, and will go on, he adds, "for many months", not least because the A3XX will be expected to provide new standards of passenger comfort. Airbus has also been talking to freight companies about their requirements for the cargo hold, and says that it has had "very positive feedback" to date.
Airline response has already produced several fuselage rethinks, the current favourite including an upper deck with six-abreast seating for business-class passengers, or eight-abreast for economy-class. The design foresees ten-abreast seating on the lower deck, with four seats in the middle and three on the outside, avoiding what Airbus refers to as "prisoners" in difficult-to-access middle seats. The interior has also been redesigned to provide for faster turnaround. The aim is to achieve turnaround in no longer than 110min.
SIZE CONSTRAINED
Extensive studies with airlines and airports have led to the decision to constrain the overall length and breadth of the A3XX to a maximum of 80m (260ft), in all foreseen versions (this is 10m longer and 15m wider than a 747). "Beyond that, and you begin to have severe problems with some major airports", says Thomas.
The all-new A3XX wing will have an aspect ratio of 8, helping achieve the 13,800km (7,450nm) range of both the basic 555-passenger A3XX-100 and the stretched A3XX-200. Winglets are not now part of the design, but folding wingtips are a "serious option", says Thomas. An important design constraint imposed by the airports is to keep wingtip-vortex disturbance down to 747 levels.
While the airlines, says Thomas, have told Airbus that the configuration now being touted is "very close to the right concept", he adds that the consortium is still a long way from finalising the A3XX design. The aim is for preliminary design freeze in the third quarter of 1997, followed by final design freeze a year later, when "-it will be possible to offer a fully specified aircraft with price, performance, guarantees and delivery times". Following an intensive marketing campaign, and assuming sufficient demand, full go-ahead would then be given in the third quarter of 1999 for delivery in 2003.
Thomas admits that the schedule is "ambitious", but points to the dangers of committing too early to production. "Some airlines want it earlier," says Thomas, "but we need a demand for 40/50 aircraft a year to ensure that we make money on the programme as early as possible". He says that he is "very confident" that this will be the case from 2003. "The airlines have told us they are happy to wait two or three years to get the right product."
Launching the A3XX depends crucially on several elements, including the not-insignificant matter of finding at least $8 billion in funding, which, according to Airbus chief operating officer Volker von Tein, has been set as the upper limit of development costs (in today's dollars). "Why should it cost more, when the combined A330 and A340 programmes cost us around $4.5 billion?" he asks.
Thomas says that Airbus will be able to find up to 30% of the money internally, while 33% will come from refundable Government subsidies or loans. The remaining 40%, says von Tein, must come from "risk-sharing partners or associates", and "-should be found before the end of 1997".
While Asian manufacturers are looked upon as important candidates for partnership (although China has indicated that it does not want to join the programme), US manufacturers are also being courted.
"We need a significant US partner, that is clear," says von Tein. Not only would serious US involvement improve the aircraft's chances of US sales, he adds, but major US companies such as Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman, which also have plenty of cash in their coffers, "-have the expertise just waiting to go".
Such companies have the experience needed to achieve the all-important aim of keeping costs down so that the aircraft is affordable. Thomas says that the A3XX "-must not cost customers proportionately more than what they pay for the 747". Scaling the 747 seating capacity to that of the A3XX, and factoring in the reduced operating costs, leaves the Airbus costing around $180 million. "If we can't achieve the price, we won't do it," he says.
HIGH-END CHALLENGE
With the A3XX finally launched, Airbus would at last be able to challenge the monopoly at the high-capacity end of the market which has been held by Boeing during the entire span of the European consortium's 26-year existence. During this time, Airbus has climbed from a frail enterprise offering a single product - the twin-aisle A300 - to number two in the commercial-aircraft league, ahead of McDonnell Douglas, with a ten-product line-up.
Despite the battle to take market share from Boeing never having been tougher, Leahy is convinced that the consortium will be able to grab a 50% share of the world market by 2001. "The A3XX is a crucial part of that," the senior vice-president says.
Source: Flight International
