Airbus attributes the 1,000-unit rise in its long-term delivery forecast for single-aisles to the industry's recovery from the downturn and a slight upwards adjustment in its expectations for growth.
Presenting its 2010 Global Market Forecast (GMF) today in Toulouse, Airbus projected that there will be some 17,900 single-aisle aircraft delivered over the next 20 years, which is around 1,000 units higher than the 16,980 deliveries in its 2010 GMF.
Its forecast for the other categories (twin-aisle and very large aircraft) is effectively unchanged, which means that overall the 20-year outlook has risen by around 1,000 units to 25,800 aircraft, worth £3.2 trillion.
In 2009's GMF, Airbus's 20-year demand forecast was 24,951 aircraft worth $3.1 trillion.
"Last year we had 4.7% annual growth, but we've bumped it up to 4.8%, which can explain around 150 of the 1,000 aircraft rise," says Airbus senior vice-president market and product strategy Chris Emerson.
"The remaining 750 is due to two effects: another year of ordering plus we've taken out a year of the downturn. There is the 'bump-up' of a stronger year because a bad downturn-year is eliminated."
Emerson says the Airbus growth projection change since last year's GMF is too small to affect aircraft numbers in the larger aircraft categories: "Growth - unless it is greater than 1% - may add some seats but it is hard to translate that into actual aircraft. But when you talk about single-aisles, you start adding aircraft."
Source: Air Transport Intelligence news
