Trans States serves up huge credibility boost to Mitsubishi MRJ

Until recently, you could be forgiven for regarding the Mitsubishi MRJ regional jet as a "national project" that had little prospect of international sales success and whose primary function was to drive Japan's aerospace technology development.

With just one order - from All Nippon Airways for up to 25 aircraft, which was placed at the time of launch in March last year - the Pratt & Whitney PW1000G geared turbofan-powered 78- to 92-seat aircraft was something of an enigma. But that has all changed, with US regional airline group Trans States Holdings (TSH) revealing plans to acquire up to 100 aircraft, including 50 on firm order.

"The Trans States deal is a very solid development for Mitsubishi - exactly what's needed to establish the MRJ as a serious competitor," says Teal Group's vice-president analysis Richard Aboulafia.

Edward Pieniazek, director of UK consultancy Ascend Worldwide, concurs: "It's important for a programme like the MRJ to register some export customers early on. The TSH stable includes Trans States Airlines and GoJet Airlines. Consequently the planned fleet progression over time from Embraer ERJ-145s and Bombardier CRJ700s to a single family of larger aircraft looks like an entirely practical option," he says.

As launched last year, two versions were on offer, the 92-seat MRJ90 that ANA ordered and the smaller 78-seat MRJ70. The programme's progression since then had been relatively quiet - particularly on the sales front - until the revelation at the beginning of September by Mitsubishi that the twinjet had been reworked to boost its international appeal and simplify its design and production, and was planning a 100-seat stretch variant.

While the four-abreast fuselage cross-section has been retained, the "Mk2" MRJ's cabin is taller to boost passenger comfort. The wing structure has been switched to aluminium from carbonfibre to allow shorter lead-times and ensure it can be more easily optimised for the MRJ70/90 and the stretch model. Mitsubishi Aircraft claims that the models will offer 18-21% lower fuel burn per seat than in-production rivals like the CRJ700 and Embraer 190.

The changes, which were implemented after discussions with potential customers in Europe and the USA, were necessary to ensure that the company comes up with a competitive regional jet, says Mitsubishi. The result was a three- to six-month programme schedule slip, with first flight and deliveries now due in the second quarter 2012 and first quarter 2014, respectively.

We now know that the revamp was a precursor to the first - and impressive by size - export order from TSH. Pieniazek forecasts that this sector will see significant demand for new aircraft in the long term and with the MRJ's design "adjusted to take into account the views expressed by customers, we would expect these 'customers' to come forward soon".

Thanks largely to P&W's GTF, the MRJ "on paper, offers game-changing potential. Consequently it cannot be ignored", says Pieniazek. However he cautions that with the PW1000G still in development, it must yet prove its in-service credentials: "It may still be considered a technological risk," he adds.

Aboulafia sees the deal as "a strong endorsement" for the GTF. "It could provoke GE to accelerate its plans for next-generation engines," he says.

Bombardier has already adopted the GTF for its CSeries twinjet, but this is aimed at the market above its CRJ family in the 110- to 150-seat segment. The MRJ's size puts it squarely in the sector occupied by the CRJ700/900/1000 and the E-Jet, and potentially current and new large turboprop developments.

Because the downturn means there are no growth drivers in place, Aboulafia says that "whatever position Mitsubishi gouges out in this market will come directly out of Bombardier and Embraer's share, so those guys will get more aggressive about defending their turf".

A key area for any new product offering is in-service support, something that even the established players have struggled with in the past. "It is by no means easy and it does require continuous investment and effort, but looking at Embraer, Bombardier and Airbus today, it's clear that it can be done," says Pieniazek.

"Setting up a sales and support network is a major hurdle for a company with great experience as a first-tier airframe partner and as a military contractor, but with minimal experience as a civil prime," Aboulafia says. "Also, although the recent design changes reduce risk, the MRJ still faces the usual development delays and performance uncertainties."

Source: Flight International