Embraer is anticipating a steady recovery in demand for regional jets from 2004, as it has increased its estimate of the total market for mid-size regional jets by 8% over the next 20 years. It has also published its first forecast for the corporate market.
The airframer has revised its estimates for 2002 and 2003 to reflect the decision by unnamed customers to delay delivery of two ERJ-145s and a Legacy business jet to next year. It now expects 132 deliveries this year and 148 in 2003, changed from 135 and 145. In its first published estimate for 2004, it forecasts a further increase in output to 155 deliveries - matching its production levels in 2000 and 2001.
Meanwhile, Embraer has cut its long-range forecast for regional jet demand over the next two decades from 8,695 units to 8,610. It has also revised the breakdown between categories - increasing the forecast for 61 to 90-seat jets to 2,590 from 2,370, slightly reducing the 30 to 60-seat sector to 3,510 and dropping the 90 to 120-seat market estimate by 10% to 2,510. Rival Bombardier, basing its regional jet forecast on the 20 to 100-seat sector, predicts demand for 6,593 aircraft.
In its first published analysis of the corporate market, Embraer has forecast demand for 7,490 business aircraft over the next 10 years. This is similar to the views of other manufacturers such as Honeywell (8,900) and analysts including Teal Group (6,908) and Forecast International (7,317).
The super mid-size market, in which Embraer competes with the ERJ-135-based Legacy, is put at 1,630 aircraft. Embraer, which is evaluating an entry into the large business jet market with corporate version of the 170, puts demand in this sector at 960 aircraft. Embraer says it expects to take around 10% (260 aircraft) of the market across these two sectors over the next decade.
Source: Flight International
