KATE SARSFIELD / LONDON

Despite US economic gloom, the mood is upbeat for this year's NBAA convention

The 54th National Business Aviation Association (NBAA) convention throws open its doors from 18-20 September in New Orleans, Louisiana, during the worst US economic downturn since the early 1990s.

Back then, faltering sales and cancelled orders crippled the industry, as customers turned their backs on business aircraft. Not so today, says NBAA president Jack Olcott. "Business jets are no longer seen as luxury items, but as a means of doing business, and so the industry has weathered the economic storm so far."

Olcott's optimism is reflected in the record number of exhibitors (1,035 at time of writing) which have signed up to the annual event. "This does not reveal an industry in the doldrums," he says, "but one that continues to thrive because the demand for corporate productivity is greater than ever."

Business aviation analyst Teal Group supports this view and has an optimistic outlook for the industry. In its latest forecast, the Fairfax, Virginia-based group predicts that 6,896 business jets worth $94.4 billion will be built between 2001 and 2010. Teal says: "The forecast reflects considerable confidence, despite a sluggish US economy, although buyer certainty has inevitably been shaky."

In this year's second-quarter results, the General Aviation Manufacturers Association reported a slight boost to industry shipments and billings compared with last year, but revealed a dip in aircraft deliveries from most manufacturers during the same period. Raytheon Aircraft is a notable victim of the sluggish economy, struggling with slower sales, particularly of the Beechjet 400A twinjet, delivering 10 fewer business jets than a year ago. The manufacturer is also being forced to cut production of King Airs and 400As as the stockpile of used aircraft grows.

Temporary glitch

Analysts are confident, however, that faltering sales are only a glitch for business aircraft manufacturers which, they say, have accumulated high order-backlogs for new and derivative models set to enter service over the next few years. These include the Bombardier Continental, Cessna Citation Sovereign, Raytheon Hawker Horizon and Hawker 450 as well as the Sino Swearingen SJ30-2.

Coupled with the continued burgeoning demand for fractional ownership, widely regarded as a life support machine for most aircraft producers, the industry is in a powerful position, Teal says.

Although fractionals are unlikely to dominate the headlines this year with record order announcements, regulation of this booming sector will be a major talking point at the show as the Federal Aviation Administration's 90-day consultation period on its notice of proposed rulemaking (NPRM) on fractional operations ends on 16 October. The NBAA is urging all industry players to comment on the NPRM, which proposes placing fractional ownership operations under a new section of the Federal Aviation Regulations (FARs) part 91, subpart K.

The move, the FAA says, is designed to enhance the safety of fractionals, while increasing the flexibility of on-demand air-charter operators. The latter group had objected to the regulations under which fractionals operate, claiming they placed the industry at a competitive disadvantage.

Also high on the agenda are the issues of airport access, noise, air traffic control delays, and airspace congestion which, individually and combined, greatly affect the convenience, flexibility and long-term health of the business aircraft industry.

Landmark ruling

The hot topics of noise and access will be fresh in the minds of delegates following two landmark rulings by US courts last month, which have placed in doubt the future of Stage 2 jet operations at US airports (Flight International 4-10 September).

The decisions by Los Angeles, Florida's Naples and California's Van Nuys airports have, argues the NBAA, effectively opened the floodgates for other US airports to ban "noisy" Stage 2 aircraft such as the Gulfstream II. It could also force operators into costly fleet upgrades.

But supporters of the ruling argue that banning Stage 2 aircraft will stimulate the market by increasing sales of new generation aircraft. Also, the fight for continued access to the regions' airports would be eased if noisy aircraft were removed.

A similar battle is also raging in US skies as the business aircraft operators challenge the FAA's phased-in implementation of new reduced separation standards for aircraft at higher altitudes. The association expects to issue an NPRM early next year that will reduce vertical separation minima (RVSM) from 2,000ft (610m) to 1,000ft for aircraft travelling in domestic airspace between flight levels (FLs) 350 and 390. That proposal is the first phase of a longer-term effort to reduce separation standards between FL290 and 410, which is slated for implementation in 2004, a date to which the industry is opposed.

The NBAA is arguing for phased implementation, contending that the quantity and cost of equipment required, such as altimeters, air-data systems and transponders, to enable the aircraft to fly in RVSM airspace, are too high, and that certification is time consuming. It says: "Implementing RVSM below FL350 before December 2005 will unjustifiably exclude a significant number of operators."

Although the industry continues to approach and address such critical issues, the NBAA - unlike other international business aviation trade associations - has positioned itself successfully as a powerful voice both within government and the FAA where it has gained the ear of key decision-makers. Olcott asserts: "The industry is getting stronger and more powerful. Through our research, we have calculated that 12,500 companies have the need for business aviation and currently only 3,000 companies use it. The biggest challenge we face is expanding the market."

At the forefront are the manufacturers, keen to exploit and develop new technology in pursuit of the ultimate business aviation experience. These latest technologies will appear in various guises at this year's convention, and all major airframers and suppliers will be present.

A number of manufacturers are developing new products either to complete their aircraft families or fill a market niche. At least one such programme will be announced at the show. The likely contender is Bombardier, which could unveil a new aircraft, possibly the "Learjet 41", a shortened version of the super light 45. The Canadian manufacturer also is likely to announce an avionics upgrade for its large-cabin Challenger. Contenders are Honeywell's Primus Epic and Rockwell Collins' Pro line. Bombardier plans to display its full range of aircraft including its super mid-size Continental, which flew for the first time last month.

Show highlights

Among other show highlights, Dassault will release final specifications of its new Falcon FNX business jet, including the aircraft's price and powerplant supplier - Honeywell's all-new FX5 is competing against a growth version of Pratt & Whitney Canada's PW306 turbofan, and three engines will provide a combined thrust of 18,000lb (80kN). The FNX trijet features a new, high-speed wing with 5í higher sweep and 1.86m longer span than the Falcon 900 wing, and a 10,500km (5,680nm) range at Mach 0.88, up from the 900EX's 8,300km at M0.84.

The aircraft has the same cabin cross section as the 900, but a 20% longer fuselage. It will also have the Primus Epic-based EASy cockpit, on display at the show, and under development for the Falcon 900EX and 2000EX jets.

Airbus Industrie will bring, for the first time, an A319 Corporate Jetliner. The aircraft, owned by French charter operator Aero Services Executive, will be displayed in the static park. Competitor Boeing Business Jets (BBJ) is set to reveal new BBJ orders and a breakdown on BBJ2 sales.

The NBAA will host the public debut of Gulfstream's expanded product line which boasts the G100 and G200 - formerly the Galaxy Aerospace Astra SPX and the Galaxy business jet until the acquisition of Galaxy in June by Gulfstream parent General Dynamics. The deal doubles the Gulfstream family, and puts the Savannah, Georgia-based manufacturer for the first time in the mid-size market, meeting range requirements from 5,450km (2,950nm) to 12,500km across its fleet.

Raytheon and Cessna are displaying their complete business aircraft lines and are set to provide product updates of their respective light mid-size Hawker 450 (unveiled at last year's NBAA), super mid-size Hawker Horizon, and mid-size Citation Sovereign all under development. Cessna's first improved $13.2 million Citation X, it will reveal, is set for delivery early next year. Changes to the Mach.92 machine include an increase in take-off thrust from 6,442lb (28.67kN) to 6,764lb and boost in maximum take-off weight by 182kg (400lbs ) to 16,410kg (36,100lb).

Source: Flight International