REBECCA RAYKO / MIAMI
US carriers without key East Coast operations are suffering less than counterparts
Several US airlines are reporting operational records in early October, although analysts are warning that a genuine recovery is still a long way off.
American Airlines and United Airlines claim that operating performance is recovering to near record levels in terms of on-time performance and completion factors (ie a low level of cancellations).
But Ed Greenslet of Miami-based consultancy ESG Aviation Services warns that these early figures do not paint the full picture and carriers have months to go before a real recovery. He also points out that the level of impact has varied geographically across the USA.
"The airlines may be reporting good performance levels, but that's reflecting the capacity cuts and doesn't tell you about loads or yields," Greenslet says.
Greenslet, whose company tracks airline performance, believes the average load factor will be "in the 50s" in October on obviously reduced capacity. "Traffic in October will probably be down 30%. November around 28%, and December 22%," Greenslet says.
Reduced traffic, capacity and fare reductions will take a terrible toll on yields, Greenslet says. "US yields were already trashed before the terrorist attacks, down 10%."
Greenslet notes that airlines without major operations along the US East Coast are faring better than their counterparts. Southwest Airlines seems relatively immune to the difficulties other major airlines are facing, while Seattle-based Alaska Airlines, operating predominantly along the West Coast, has shown the smallest decline in traffic, Greenslet says, with traffic down only 18%.
Smaller US carriers have also shown signs of optimism. AirTran Airways has announced expansion from its Atlanta hub to Baltimore and Boston. Start-up USA 3000 says it will go ahead with its planned launch next month, and has received the first of five leased Airbus A320s. The airline will operate charters on behalf of its tour operator parent Apple Vacations between the USA and Caribbean.
Source: Flight International
