Airbus has hiked its outlook for new aircraft deliveries over the next 20 years to 43,420, up by about 1,000 from last year’s prediction.
Of this total, covering both passenger and freighter model, around 34,250 will be typically single-aisle aircraft. Another 9,170 will typically be widebodies – among them 970 new-build freighters.
The airframer’s latest global market forecast, covering the period to 2044, expects 18,930 of the overall deliveries to replace retired types – a proportion of 44%, unchanged from last year.
They will bring the global in-service fleet to 49,210 in 2044, double the current level.
Speaking during a briefing on the forecast in Toulouse on 10 June, Airbus head of market analysis for commercial aircraft Antonio Da Costa said some 40% of the single-aisle demand over the next 20 years is already covered by airframers’ backlogs of nearly 14,200 such aircraft.
This leaves an open demand of around 20,000 single-aisle aircraft for the next two decades, along with some 5,600 widebodies.
Da Costa says there is a “lot of stability” in the current market outlook compared with last year’s forecast, following the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic.
Figures for April 2025, he says, show passenger traffic in all global regions above levels from pre-pandemic April 2019.
Despite current economic uncertainties, Airbus expects global annual passenger traffic growth of 3.6% based on GDP increases of 2.5%.
He highlights the growth rates and network densification of emerging economic regions, particularly in Asia.
India’s internal route network has trebled in the past decade, he says, and its domestic traffic growth rate is the world’s highest at 8.9%. Vietnamese traffic is up more than seven-fold over the last 20 years.
While Chinese domestic traffic has a slower rate of increase, about 5.4% annually, it will nevertheless be the largest overall traffic flow by far in 2044, overtaking the more mature domestic US market whose growth will be limited to 1.6%.
Da Costa underlines the “continuous market shift” towards Asia, with around 45% of all deliveries over the next 20 years – some 19,600 aircraft – going to China and the remaining Asia-Pacific region.
He says the Asia, the Middle East and Africa will account for about 60% of commercial aircraft capacity in 2044, the same level currently associated with Europe, the Americas and the CIS.
Airbus is aiming to detail a freighter demand forecast separately in October.
Da Costa says that, even though Airbus has reduced its world trade growth outlook from 3.1% last year to 2.6% this year, air freight focuses on “high-value goods” – and that it expects the sector to “continue to grow at a healthy pace”.
