The GE-Honeywell deal has sent shockwaves through the aero engine industry
Guy Norris/LOS ANGELES
A new era has dawned for the aero-engine industry as Flight International presents its annual turbofans directory, to be followed next week by the guide to turboprops.
Just as the industry was becoming used to calling the AS900 a Honeywell engine, along comes General Electric (GE) with its $45 billion, game-changing buy-out. The move heralds the most dramatic phase of consolidation in the industry since Rolls-Royce's takeover of Allison Engines and, if approved, will have even more far-reaching effects than the failed United Technologies (UTC) bid for Honeywell which prompted GE's action.
GE appears to have found the perfect match for its powerplant family. Honeywell's small and medium-thrust business and regional engines range from the 3,500lb (15kN)-thrust TFE731 to the new AS900 at 9,000lb. GE's engine line starts with the hugely successful CF34 at 8,700lb and extends all the way to the mighty GE90-115, at 115,000lb the most powerful jet engine ever developed. There are similar cosy fits on the turboshaft side between Honeywell's TPE331 and T800 and GE's CT7/T700 engines. Even in the military arena, Honeywell's F124 engine sits in a thrust niche below the bigger company's F404/414 and F110.
GE can therefore anticipate significant market penetration with its wide-ranging new engine family, which now matches the enormous breadth of the combined Pratt & Whitney Canada (P&WC) and P&W product range as well as that of Rolls-Royce.
Even as the industry copes with the interesting new dynamics of the GE-Honeywell merger, the opening shots are being fired in the marketshare war between Rolls-Royce and the other recent newcomer to the industry, the GE-P&W Engine Alliance. Both faced off for the first time in earnest last month in Singapore where the national airline chose the Rolls-Royce Trent 900-powered Airbus A3XX over the Alliance-powered alternative and Boeing's 747X, which was offered with both the GE/P&WP7168 and the Trent 600. The deeply discounted deal bought Rolls-Royce a crucial lead on the A3XX and bolstered its early position on the new Super jumbo following its selection by International Lease Finance in August to supply a range of engines - including the Trent 900 - for up to 37 A3XXs, A330s and 777s.
The GE-P&W Engine Alliance, which sits on the verge of a formal selection by GE Capital to power a batch of A3XXs, is expected to mass its considerable resources to win impending decisions at Emirates and Qantas. Although both are existing Rolls-Royce users, recent experiences, such as SIA's 777 engine selection, show that brand loyalty is fast becoming an outdated concept.
In the meantime, the GP7000 development schedule is being accelerated in the run-up to the start of detailed design in August 2001. The immediate target, ironically, is neither of the big quad designs it was originally conceived for, but Boeing's longer range 767-400X, which is due in service more than two years earlier than either the A3XX or 747X. Rolls-Royce is offering the Trent 600 for the Boeing twin jet application as well as the 747X and begins detailed design of the engine this month.
The dynamics of the higher- thrust arena have also changed following Boeing's selection, in July 1999, of the GE90-115B as the exclusive powerplant for the longer range 777-200LR and -300ER derivatives. The first 115,000lb-thrust engine is due to begin tests in the fourth quarter of 2001, with entry-into-service targeted for late 2003. GE's pursuit of the longer range 777s, which dramatically reversed its policy of writing-off the GE90, appears to be reaping rewards. By October, an Air France order for up to 20 new 777 derivatives had boosted the GE90-115B firm order book to 98 engines, valued at more than $1.5 billion. Similar improvements in the GE90-powered 777-200ER orderbook have also seen GE's market share gradually improve to include 16 customers with 185 firm and 46 option GE90-powered 777s.
Rolls-Royce, which began the year with firm orders for more than 250 Trent 800-powered 777s from 11 customers, expects to see further growth in 2001 as it seeks to expand its 44% marketshare. Although acknowledging the overall cap now sitting over the marketshare battle as a result of GE's exclusivity deal, conservatively estimated at more than 500 long-range 777s over the next 20 years, Rolls-Royce is keen to capitalise on its success with the big Boeing twin.
Rolls-Royce also marked the first flight of its Trent 500 engine for the Airbus A340-500/600 in June, and is confident of gaining certification on schedule in December. The Trent 500 enjoys de facto exclusivity on the long-range A340 variants, and which has attracted orders worth almost $6 billion to the engine maker. The A340-600 is scheduled to enter service with Virgin Atlantic in 2002's second quarter, followed by the A340-500 with Air Canada later that year.
Pratt & Whitney's difficulties meanwhile continue, with slow sales of the PW4000 and problems with a high-pressure module replacement kit that caused surges after installation on versions powering 747 and 767s. The company started the year by announcing plans to cut its workforce, but saw a brighter summer with PW4000 selections for A330s ordered by LTU and ILFC. The PW4168 continues to be a workhorse engine for the company, having won almost 50% of all orders for the A330 against the GE CF6-80E2 and R-R Trent 700.
P&W's biggest civil engine highlights of the year to date have revolved around new technology initiatives it hopes hold the key to the future. The most evident of these was the first flight of the PW6000 on its Boeing 720B testbed on 21 August. Despite the initial uncertainty over the final choice of high pressure compressor design, the engine remains on track for certification in October 2001 and for first flight on the A318 the following January. P&W pins a lot on the engine's success, because of its market potential on the A318 and as the technology basis for new generation engines to succeed its PW2000 and PW4000 models.
It is committed to supporting its share in the International Aero Engines V2500 which continues its battle with CFM International's CFM56 on the Airbus A320 family. The success of Boeing's Next Generation 737, meanwhile, underwrites the continuing success of the CFM56, the world's fastest selling commercial engine. Orders for 2000 broke the 732 mark by July, dispelling fears that this year would see the start of an anticipated slow down in sales for the ubiquitous CFM56.
Lower thrust arena
Pratt & Whitney's most encouraging move appears to be a decision to shift research and development for a future geared fan engine to the lower thrust arena. This was confirmed at this year's Farnborough air show when, with P&WC and MTU, it revealed plans to develop an Advanced Technology Fan Integrator geared -fan demonstrator aimed at the business and regional market. The goal of the project, now designated the GTF (geared turbofan), is a range of engines from 10,000lb-19,000lb thrust. A 12,000lb demonstrator is to run in 2001's first quarter. Although P&WC admits that the current and planned generation of regional jets is spoken for, the company believes the economics of the new-technology GTF will ensure its viability as a leading contender for third generation regional jets and even re-engining.
At the bottom of the thrust bracket, P&WC is starting detailed design of the first of a series of new engines covering the 1,000lb to 2,500lb thrust range. Dubbed the PW600, the family will also spin off turboprop derivatives, and fill the power gap at the lower end of the market.
In the meantime, GE and Rolls-Royce still reap the rewards of early positioning in the regional market. GE, in particular, is seeing dramatic gains with the CF34 orderbook, which now exceeds $10 billion in firm orders and options for the CF34-3, -8 and -10 family. The bulk of these are for Bombardier's CRJ series, orders and options for which stand at almost 2,540, while the balance is from future deliveries of the Fairchild Dornier 728/928JET and Embraer ERJ-120/190. Rolls-Royce's AE3007A engine, tied to the success of the Embraer ERJ 135/145 family, is also witnessing record business with orders and options for it approaching 1,200. The first example of Honeywell's new regional engine contender, the AS900, is to be delivered to BAE Systems in December for installation on the first Avro RJX.
The military propulsion spotlight continues to shine on P&W's JSF119 engines which successfully powered the maiden flights of Boeing's and Lockheed Martin's Joint Strike Fighter concept demonstrator aircraft in September and October respectively. The first runs of the JSF119 engine for Boeing's X-32B short take off and vertical landing (STOVL) variant began on 21 September, marking the start of a build-up which should see both companies fly the first vertical landing sorties in 2001's first quarter.
GE, which continues development of its F120-based JSF alternative engine, launched its 32,500lb-thrust F110-132 derivative in March on the back of the long-awaited United Arab Emirates order for 80 Block 60 F-16s. GE claims more than 80% of the world market for the F-16C/D, but admitted significant losses to P&W which had successive victories with follow-on campaigns with the F100-220/229 in Singapore, Israel and Korea. P&W also won a major order from Greece to power 50 F-16s with the -229.
In Europe, the focus remains on the Eurojet EJ200 which is now into its first full year of production for the Eurofighter Typhoon.
Source: Flight International
