GRAHAM WARWICK / WASHINGTON DC

Only Cirrus bucks trend as manufacturers struggle to meet year-end delivery forecasts

Business and light aircraft shipments continued their decline in the third quarter, and some manufacturers face a challenge meeting their year-end delivery forecasts. Worldwide shipments have fallen almost 17% in the first nine months, to under 1,800 aircraft, according to the General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA).

Turboprops continue to be the hardest hit, deliveries falling 26% in the third quarter and by over 40% to just 170 aircraft in the first nine months. Jet shipments declined by 15% for the quarter and, at 497 aircraft, are 12% down for the year to date. Piston aircraft deliveries were down 8% for the quarter, and by over 14% to 1,099 aircraft in the first nine months.

Only Cirrus Design bucked the downward trend, shipping 119 light aircraft in the third quarter, up from 43 a year ago as it ramps up production and works off its backlog.

Cessna's orderbook has been boosted by launch sales for 217 entry-level Citation Mustangs and 156 CJ3 light jets, but deliveries of these aircraft will not begin until 2004 and 2006, respectively.

With demand for business jet deliveries in 2003 and 2004 down 15% from this year, Cessna is slowing Citation production. The company says all 300 aircraft scheduled for shipment this year are now sold, while orders have been taken for around 70% of the 250 planned for delivery next year.

Raytheon Aircraft says over half its deliveries scheduled for the fourth quarter, 65 out of 123, were unsold at the end of the third quarter. These included 24 King Air turboprops, 12 Hawker 800XP mid-size jets, eight Beechjet 400A and five Premier I light jets, but the company is "guardedly optimistic" about meeting its year-end forecast.

Raytheon has cut production this year to 282 aircraft, down from 378 last year, and again next year, to 276 units. Hawker production will rise from 39 to 46 aircraft, and from 33 to 58 for the Premier, but Beechjet, King Air and piston output will all be cut further and no Beech 1900D regional turboprops will be built.

Gulfstream's third quarter shipments dropped significantly from a year ago, with deliveries falling by seven to 17 for "green" aircraft and by five to 19 for completed business jets. It has "very few" open delivery slots left for this year, but "needs to sell some G200s by the end of the year", says parent company General Dynamics.

Bombardier has already said it is suspending business jet production for around four months, and Dassault is to reduce Falcon production from six to five a month, delivering 60 in 2003, down from the 72 planned for this year. The French manufacturer says it booked orders for 75 jets in the first nine months of the year.

Source: Flight International