Guy Norris/SANTIAGO
Airbus Industrie aims to secure as much as 60% of the world's large civil airliner market in the future, and is confident that Boeing's share may drop to 40%.
"We have moved to our goal of 50-55% of the market, and I really think airlines want to see some stabilisation at 50% to 60%," says John Leahy, Airbus' senior vice-president commercial. "Boeing will probably stabilise at around 40%."
He draws the line at a 60% market share, however, saying: "I don't think you will see Airbus having 80%. We don't think we need to be producing that much".
The consortium has raised its goals following a surge in business in 1998 and 1999. In terms of orders logged last year, the Airbus tally of 476 units represented 55% of the total 100-seat plus market, versus 391 units or a 45% share for Boeing. In value terms, Airbus says this translates into $30.5 billion, or 52% of the market for Airbus and $28 billion, or 48% for Boeing. "Maybe Airbus and Boeing will sell about 350 units each this year," Leahy adds, "combining for a total of 600 to 650 firm orders".
Airbus production targets set last year envisage delivery of 307 aircraft this year (against 297 in 1999), 330 in 2001 and 358 in 2002. With its orderbook bulging, the A318 kicking in from 2002 and airline delivery requirements at the limits of capacity in recent campaigns, plans are afoot to boost production further.
Output of single-aisle aircraft in Toulouse - seven A320s a month - looks set to rise to 13-15, with Hamburg (A318s, A319s and A321s) ramping up to a maximum of 15 from 2001, giving a monthly capacity of at least 28 aircraft. The partners have already agreed to shift some A319 assembly to Toulouse if there is overspill (Flight International, 23-29 June 1999). Meanwhile, Toulouse's widebody output, running at seven a month, is expected to rise to eight or nine.
These increased rates would allow for around 450 annual deliveries by 2002, significantly higher than previous projections made for that year.
Airbus remains wary of pushing production up too fast, and while it confirms that a monthly narrowbody capacity of 28 aircraft "is being explored", it adds: "We have to ensure that the whole production system can support a decision and that takes time. Each partner is responsible for its own suppliers and to ensure they can or cannot make it."
Source: Flight International
