MAX KINGSLEY-JONES / LONDON & PAUL LEWIS / WASHINGTON DC
As operators ground airliners to avoid breaking leases, experts say many will not fly again
Aviation analysts are warning that the world's idle jet fleet is set to almost double to 2,000 aircraft in the coming months in the aftermath of the 11 September attacks. With aircraft values tumbling, many are not expected to fly again.
"The capacity cuts introduced since 11 September have been severe and the stored aircraft fleet, which numbered around 1,200 aircraft, has in effect increased by 800 aircraft," says Edward Pieniazek, director consultancy and information services at UK analysts Airclaims.
US analysts Avitas agrees with the 2,000 stored aircraft projection, by far the highest tally that the industry has ever seen. "People are grounding the aircraft they own in order to avoid breaking leases. These tend to be older aircraft that may not ever come back into service, such as the Boeing 737-200, 727, 747-200 [Classics] and McDonnell Douglas DC-9 and DC-10," says Adam Pilarski, Avitas senior vice- president. "We're definitely not at the bottom yet," he adds.
Airclaims estimates that 8% of the world narrowbody fleet has been, or will be, parked as a result of the terrorist attacks. Around 6% of the world's widebodies are heading for desert storage, says Airclaims. Around 500 of the aircraft due to be withdrawn are operated by North American carriers, it adds. "We may not have seen the last of the cuts as the airlines try to find the floor," says Airclaims' Pieniazek.
Airclaims thinks that it is important for the industry's recovery that older airliners which are entering storage never fly with passengers again. In the last downturn many retired aircraft were kept "mothballed" but "the rationale for keeping aircraft in this status pending a return to service is not as solid this time," says Pieniazek.
The sudden fall in aircraft demand has had a dramatic effect on values, says Pieniazek: "The picture is not uniform across all aircraft types, but the universal trend is for market values to have fallen by 10-50% since 11 September." He says that the 10% drop applies to a current generation narrowbody such as the Airbus A320, while the 50% fall relates to younger, previous generation widebodies such as the 747-200.
While acknowledging that there is an absence of aircraft trading on which to base transaction prices, Airclaims estimates that the value of older passenger widebodies such as the 747-200 has fallen to between $1 million and $12 million, and the DC-10-30 is worth between $2 million and $4 million.
Source: Flight International
