Never will those who wage war tire of deception, wrote the Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu. We might never know whether Airbus sales supremo John Leahy was playing a colossal bluff when he taunted Boeing over its narrowbody strategy in April, insisting the US airframer had no choice but to re-engine its 737 in response to the A320neo.
"When one big Boeing customer decides to go with the Neo, then all this 'BS' about game-changing airplanes available in 2020 will stop, and you'll see a re-engined 737," he said.
That challenge to end the see-sawing was unusually blunt, even for Leahy - hardly known for resisting a jibe at his "friends in Seattle" - and there was a sense at the time that the overt swaggering might be interpreted as the gentleman protesting too much. That perhaps he feared Boeing might find the courage to repeat the 787 coup which had caught Airbus napping.
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© AirbusJohn Leahy (right): has he been reading Sun Tzu? |
However, if Leahy was bluffing, several elements served to strengthen his hand. Airbus had provided clarity, whereas Boeing was still keeping customers guessing. The A320neo had also proven unexpectedly popular - Airbus took 11 years to sell 1,000 A320s but orders and commitments for the re-engined version reached four figures in only seven months.
Even though many of the customers were Airbus operators, dwindling slots threatened to leave any procrastinators with less bargaining room.
And there was the crucial matter of timing. American Airlines and Delta Air Lines, two traditional home-ground Boeing fortresses, were already hunting for vast numbers of narrowbodies, and all-Boeing operator Southwest Airlines had been showing signs of impatience. Take advantage of the enemy's unpreparedness, Sun Tzu wrote in his ancient treatise The Art of War, travel by unexpected routes and strike him where he has taken no precautions.
Whether American was the "one big Boeing customer" to which Leahy was referring in April, or not, its decision to defect to Airbus proved too much for the US airframer. The speed at which Boeing folded, in a spectacular capitulation on 20 July, perhaps caught even John Leahy by surprise.
There seems little doubt that Boeing wanted to take the bolder step. A new aircraft must have seemed tantalisingly within reach for Boeing to have taken so long to reach the same conclusion as Airbus. However speed, as Sun Tzu said, is the essence of war.
Source: Flight International
