Start-up aircraft developer Eve has released a new study projecting a robust market opportunity for the emerging electric air taxi industry, though the estimates are less optimistic than some previous predictions.
The company expects 30,000 electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft could be flying passengers by 2045, according to its latest report, released on 15 June.
It estimates 3 billion passengers will travel by air taxi between 2026 and 2045, accounting for $280 billion in “passenger revenue potential”.
The fresh estimates benefit from an improved grasp by Eve of the challenges and timing associated with bringing the novel aircraft through certification and into passenger service, says Eve chief commercial officer Megha Bhatia.
“We’ve come out with a pragmatic and balanced and accurate projection of how we think the market’s going to evolve,” she says. “While it might be slower to start, we do believe there is a robust market that is projected for urban air mobility. The long-term demand remains in place.”
Citing World Bank data, Eve’s report estimates the number of people living in urban areas will hit 6.7 billion by 2050, up from 4.6 billion in 2023.
“That translates into rapid urbanisation that is going to stress the mobility system,” says Bhatia.
Eve and a handful of competitors went public earlier this decade amid a rush of investment into the eVTOL sector. In 2021, Eve cited a KPMG report pegging the total addressable value of the passenger urban air mobility (UAM) market at $762 billion through 2040.
Also in 2021, competitor Archer Aviation cited a Morgan Stanley report valuing the total UAM market at $1 trillion or more by 2040.
Since then, some eVTOL developers have failed – notably Lilium and Volocopter – but the remaining players have pushed forward and been aided by regulatory advancements, as bodies like Brazilian regulator ANAC and the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have published rules defining eVTOL requirements.
“Perhaps previously we were more optimistic about adoption, and regulatory approvals and readiness,” says Eve’s Bhatia. “We have a better view of the certification complexities. We also have a better view of what the entry into service could look like.”
Of the 30,000 eVTOL aircraft Eve expects will be flying in 2045, 12,200 will be in the Asia-Pacific region (including India and Australia), and 8,715 will be in North America, which will be “the frontrunner in terms of number of flying passengers”.
Eve expects operation of 5,215 eVTOL aircraft in Europe, Russia and other CIS-member states, 2,060 in Latin America, 1,300 in the Middle East and 510 in Africa.
Eve, which is among several firms seen as having the best chance of achieving an air taxi certification, has been plugging away at developing its four-passenger aircraft.
The company aims for its design to initially be certified by ANAC, and in service in 2027. Eve is also working closely with the FAA to achieve its sign off.
Eve’s market report cites challenges including regulatory approvals, public acceptance, infrastructure development and air tariff management.
The company hopes to begin flight testing an engineering prototype of its air taxi this year and in 2026 to start flight testing a production-conforming prototype.
Eve notes that it benefits from the technical and certification support of Embraer, its majority shareholder.
