IATA has cut its 2025 earnings guidance for the global airline sector, citing “significant” economic uncertainty, a fall in consumer confidence and “off-the-chart unacceptable” supply chain challenges.
The airline association now expects airlines to report a combined net profit of $36 billion, a slight dip from the previous forecast of $36.6 billion set in December 2024.
Combined operating profit is forecast to stand at around $66 billion, down from the previous estimate of $67.5 billion.
IATA director general Willie Walsh, who was speaking at the association’s annual general meeting in Delhi, says the airline sector is “looking at slower – but still very healthy – growth” in 2025.
The association states that the profit forecasts for 2025 still track higher than 2024, and attributes this to lower jet fuel prices, which will bring down operating costs.
Still, Walsh notes: “Earning a $36 billion profit is significant. But that equates to just $7.20 per passenger per segment. It’s still a thin buffer and any new tax, increase in airport or navigation charge, demand shock or costly regulation will quickly put the industry’s resilience to the test.”
He points out that airlines are also squeezed by a litany of supply chain challenges, including delivery delays and reliability issues.
IATA notes that aircraft delivery estimates for 2025 have also been cut by 26% from forecasts a year ago and warns that “further downward revisions are likely”, given that supply chain issues will persist “possibly to the end of the decade”.
Adds Walsh: “Manufacturers continue to let their airline customers down. Every airline is frustrated that these problems have persisted so long. And indications that it could take until the end of the decade to fix them are off-the-chart unacceptable.”.
