Central European budget carrier Wizz Air can expect a substantial impact on revenues and profits as it undergoes fleet deferrals and slower capacity growth – but will experience a faster recovery over 2027-28, according to a research note from UK investment bank Peel Hunt.
It expects a disclosure shortly on the delivery schedule for new aircraft, stating that discussions between Wizz and Airbus are “close to completion”, adding that it believes the airline is looking to push back the arrival of 90-100 aircraft – originally set for fiscal 2028-30 – to dates beyond fiscal 2030-31.
Wizz is also aiming to swap long-range A321XLRs for other Airbus A320neo-family models. The carrier has previously signalled plans to retain only 10-15 XLRs out of the original 47 ordered, following its decision to ditch its Abu Dhabi operation.
The changes, says the 14 October research note, will slow Wizz Air’s plans to expand from 231 to 424 aircraft over the next five years.
While closing the Abu Dhabi division eliminates a loss-making operation, it adds, the reduction in average sector length increases unit revenues and ex-fuel unit costs.
Peel Hunt expects lower aircraft utilisation and a “challenging” period as Wizz adapts to the Abu Dhabi closure while continuing to address Pratt & Whitney GTF engine inspections, and the bank has halved its pre-tax profit forecast for 2025-26, to €70 million ($81 million) and cut the 2026-27 figure by a quarter.
But it states that it “much” prefers the slower capacity-growth model, arguing that it is “more manageable”, and forecasts that – once the fleet is fully operational by the end of fiscal 2027-28, following engine inspections – this slower growth “will support faster profit recovery”. Peel Hunt has raised its profit outlook for 2027-28 by more than a third.
The airline generated a full-year pre-tax profit of €20 million for 2024-25, although it benefited from a tax credit that lifted net profit to €214 million.
Wizz Air is set to disclose first-half financial results on 13 November.
