Amid a darkening geopolitical outlook, Australia faces important questions about its future airpower capabilities, as it draws ever closer to the USA.
When the gates open for the Avalon Airshow near Melbourne, Victoria on 28 February things will appear much the same as in years past.
The Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) will practice flying displays on the trade days along with aircraft from other air forces. Food, drink, and conversation will flow in the well-stocked chalets adjacent to the runway, as an army of amateur photographers snaps images of fighters and other aircraft.
Because of the coronavirus pandemic the show has not been held since 2019, so overseas visitors will have much to catch up on with their Australian friends.
INCREASED DETERRENT
But the festive atmosphere will belie a starkly changed geopolitical environment: one characterised by strategic rivalry between an increasingly aggressive China and Australia’s great ally, the USA.
The years since the last Avalon saw the rise of AUKUS, a security pact between Australia, the UK, and the USA. AUKUS’s key objective is providing Australia with nuclear submarines in order to increase deterrence against China. Some defence observers feel that AUKUS should be broadened to include airpower, specifically an Australian acquisition of the Northrop Grumman B-21 Raider strategic bomber.
China’s behaviour has also boosted the importance of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or ‘QUAD’, between Australia, India, Japan and the USA. As never before, Australian interoperability with key allies in the air remains essential.
Malcolm Davis, senior analyst, defence strategy and capability at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), feels that interoperability with allies is “vital” for the country.
“There needs to be commonality in terms of information sharing via common data links and networks… common platforms and force architectures, commonality and compatibility of weapons systems,” he says.
“We need to be able to support US and allied air combat capabilities operating from Australian bases in wartime, with maintenance, and force sustainment.”
Interoperability with the USA and other allies is already a pillar of Australian airpower thinking, and it is one that is likely to be further strengthened later in the 2020s.
A December 2022 joint statement from the US state and defense secretaries, Anthony Blinken and Lloyd Austin, and Australia’s ministers of foreign affairs and defence, Penny Wong and Richard Marles, underlined the importance of the Australian/US relationship.
The statement appeared to reference the US Air Force’s (USAF’s) Agile Combat Employment doctrine; whereby American aircraft are envisaged operating from dispersed, austere bases. This complicates the targeting strategy of potential foes, namely China.
“To support enhanced air cooperation, Australia and the United States committed to co-develop agile logistics at nominated airfields – including at bare bases in northern Australia – to support more responsive and resilient rotations of US aircraft.”
They also disclosed that crews for the USAF’s planned future airborne early warning and control aircraft, the Boeing E-7 Wedgetail, will undergo training in Australia. Canberra has extensive experience with the 737NG-based type, having operated it for over a decade.
Highlighting the close relationship, in January RAAF Air Vice-Marshal Carl Newman joined the US Air Force as deputy commander of its Pacific command. In this role, Newman reports directly to Pacific Air Force Commander Ken Wilsbach. Newman has extensive responsibilities in the command, which comprises some 46,000 personnel.
Another notable demonstration of Australia’s commitment to working with partners was the Pitch Black airpower exercise in Queensland that ran in August and September of 2022. The event brought 100 aircraft and 2,500 personnel from around the world to North Australia, where they simulated high-end air combat.
In addition to traditional Pitch Black participants such as the USA, New Zealand, and other regional neighbours, for the first time Germany, Japan and South Korea participated.
CLOSE TIES
In November, RAAF and USAF assets conducted Exercise Global Dexterity from RAAF Amberley in Queensland. The work saw Boeing C-17s from the two countries conduct tactical airlift and airdrop missions. For the first time, USAF C-17s received fuel from RAAF Airbus Defence & Space KC-30As – the Australian designation for the A330 multi-role tanker transport (MRTT).
Underlining the close ties between the two air forces, Global Dexterity saw integrated aircrews manoeuvring at low levels in Papua New Guinea. RAAF and USAF maintenance personnel also worked together on the ground.
November also saw Australia and South Korea enter an agreement to cooperate on air-to-air refuelling – the Republic of Korea Air Force is also an operator of the A330 MRTT. The two nations will align their air-to-air refuelling procedures to improve interoperability, according to Australia’s Department of Defence (DoD).
“This helps further ensure that our two air forces can support one another in the skies, during exercises and training activities and on any future operations,” said RAAF Air Vice-Marshal Darren Goldie. “The transfer of fuel when required to sustain and prolong our presence in the air is critical to our aircraft being able to successfully project air power.”
COMBINED CAPABILITIES
Yet the greatest symbol of Canberra’s alignment with Washington DC’s global alliance network is its commitment to the Lockheed Martin F-35, which has replaced its Boeing F/A-18A/B “Classic” Hornets. Cirium fleets data indicates that the RAAF has received 53 F-35As – in July 2022, the DoD said that 50 examples were based in Australia.
Again highlighting interoperability, before the RAAF’s 49th and 50th F-35As flew to Australia from Nellis AFB in Nevada in mid-2022, they participated in Exercise Black Flag 22-1 and integration work with the USAF’s 422nd Test and Evaluation Squadron.
Black Flag explored ways for the RAAF and USAF to combine their capabilities against a “peer adversary”, with a focus on an “advanced air-to-air threat”.
Canberra has committed to acquiring 72 F-35As, but faces a key question as to whether to take its fleet beyond this, possibly to 100 aircraft.
The RAAF also operates 24 F/A-18F Block II Super Hornets and 11 EA-18G Growlers. The Super Hornets appear set to stay in RAAF service into the 2030s, but the DoD is coy about whether they will be upgraded to the advanced Block III standard now being rolled out for the US Navy (USN).
In response to a query from FlightGlobal about a potential Block III upgrade, the DoD offered this response: “The RAAF will continue to undertake a spiral upgrade of our Super Hornet fleet through life of type. The spiral upgrade programme provides ongoing capability assurance including maintaining interoperability with the United States and allies, as well as service life assurance.”
The Super Hornet’s electronic warfare variant, the EA-18G, will continue to provide a key enabling capability for the RAAF, the only other operator of the type apart from the USN.
Work has also continued on the Boeing Australia MQ-28A Ghost Bat, an unmanned aircraft developed in conjunction with the RAAF. Formerly named the “Airpower Teaming System”, the unveiling of the MQ-28A was the big news at the 2019 Avalon show.
Without going into specifics, Boeing says that work is still under on the programme, and that production of the MQ-28A continues in the company’s Fishermans Bend facility alongside system and payload development. Testing is also informing the type’s electronic “digital twin”.
“Boeing will continue to manufacture and test aircraft, as well as the supporting capabilities, with support from our Australian industry team throughout 2023 as we expand production capacity and deliver to RAAF commitments. These requirements continue to expand as we move towards our aim of developing an operational capability for Defence.”
ADDITIONAL MASS
In March 2022, Australia’s defence minister at the time, Peter Dutton, said the aircraft would be key in adding mass to the RAAF’s capabilities, although a formal order for the type has yet to emerge. The MQ-28A – or a more capable evolution of the type – is envisaged as accompanying RAAF fighters on combat missions, and also performing support roles, such as escorting E-7s and KC-30As.
Davis feels that the MQ-28A could have a bearing on the degree and flavour of Australia’s possible participation on the USAF’s Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) programme, a secretive effort to develop a sixth-generation fighter.
In addition to a potential B-21 buy, he believes that “the other issue on the horizon is NGAD and whether Australia, having already developed Ghost Bat, could enter into the NGAD programme in the same way it did with the [F-35] many years back, with the view to perhaps acquiring NGAD-type capability – or co-developing the NGAD system of crewed and autonomous systems using Ghost Bat – in the mid-2030s, to initially complement, but ultimately replace the F-35A down the track.”
He adds that these decisions are being made in the context of China’s growing military threat, as well as its development of fifth-generation capabilities in the form of the Chengdu J-20 and Avic J-31/35 fighters, not to mention long-range bombers such as the Xian H-6N, the developmental H-20 stealth bomber, and the mysterious J/H-XX bomber.
“Add to this their long-range conventional missile capabilities, investment in autonomous systems, and their advanced counterspace capabilities, and China’s ability to project airpower is rapidly growing. Most of it is still focused on the Taiwan contingency, but it’s clear that China is also extending its reach. Our northern bases are now under threat with Chinese missiles able to range Tindal and other bases. If the Chinese were to establish forward air bases – perhaps in the Solomon Islands – that would dramatically increase the threat to Australia.”
While Davis and others believe the B-21 is the ideal platform to extend Australia’s long-range strike capability, Canberra has been low key about expressing interest. It is still early days, however: the B-21 was only rolled out on 2 December 2022, and faces years of testing before entering USAF service.
Nonetheless, RAAF chief Air Marshal Robert Chipman attended the B-21’s roll-out out at Northrop’s Palmdale, California factory, as did UK Royal Air Force chief of staff Air Chief Marshal Sir Mike Wigston. This invited speculation in Australian media about Australian interest in the stealthy type.
NEW BOMBER
At an 8 December doorstop interview in Washington DC after the AUKUS joint statement, Marles was asked point blank about Australia’s interest in the B-21.
“The B-21 is definitely a cool looking aircraft but… we should just remember that literally the Americans have just announced it themselves and are getting it operational, so there’s no conversations about B-21s,” said Marles.
Irrespective, an Australian B-21 acquisition would help reduce the unit cost of the type for the USAF, in addition to shoring up the airpower of a key US ally.
Any conflict in the Asia-Pacific region involving Australia and the USA is going to involve plenty of airlift. To this end, Australia has decided to replace its 12 Lockheed C-130Js with up to 24 brand new C-130Js.
“Defence has identified that the new C-130J aircraft represents the only option that meets all of Australia’s capability requirements and assures Defence’s medium air mobility capability without introducing substantial cost, schedule and capability risk,” the DoD said in November 2022, when it announced the tactical airlift update.
The DoD states that the decision to obtain new C-130Js reflects experience with previous defence acquisitions as well as the RAAF’s experience with the type. Obtaining new Hercules, it contends, reduces risk and is affordable, while meeting requirements. Two days after the DoD’s announcement, the US government stated that it had cleared a potential Australian buy of 24 new C-130Js for a total cost of $6.35 billion.
Australian Army airlift will also be brought into line with the US Army. In late 2021 Canberra said that it would retire its 47 NH Industries NH90s (designated the MRH90 Taipan in Australia) early, and replace them with Sikorsky UH-60M Black Hawks. The decision followed years of problems with the European type since it first entered service in 2014. Canberra also plans to replace its legacy Sikorsky S-70s with the UH-60M.
The Black Hawk acquisition was confirmed on 18 January. The US government last August valued a 40-aircraft Foreign Military Sales deal at a potential $1.95 billion.
RAPID DELIVERY
“Delivery of the Black Hawk helicopters will commence this year,” the DoD says.
To be operated from Holsworthy, New South Wales and Oakey, Queensland, the rotorcraft will “be a crucial element for us to protect Australia’s sovereignty, and deliver foreign policy objectives, including providing humanitarian assistance and disaster relief,” says Major General Jeremy King, the army’s land capability head.
“The Black Hawk will support the deployment of our troops and their equipment where they are needed in times of crisis,” says King, who describes the UH-60M as “a reliable, proven and mature platform supported by a robust global supply chain.”
The Royal Australian Navy will also receive 12 additional MH-60R helicopters from mid-2025, adding to 23 in-service examples. These will replace Taipans that now serve in a naval logistics role. The army is also replacing its Airbus Helicopters Tigers with 29 Boeing AH-64E Apaches.
Over the last decade Australia has drawn ever closer to the USA on the airpower front, as shown by Canberra’s acquisition decisions. Common interests and common security concerns suggest that American and Australian airpower will become even more entwined over the coming years.
