The cost of Canada’s stealth fighter acquisition is soaring, years before the first jets are even delivered.
A report from the office of the Canadian Auditor General finds the Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) will ultimately pay nearly twice the 2022 estimate of C$19 billion ($13.8 billion) to field 88 Lockheed Martin F-35As.
Citing issues including foreign exchange fluctuations and rising facilities costs, the auditor’s report says that figure will now be more than C$27 billion.
Notably, that projection does not include an additional C$5.5 billion in spending on munitions and infrastructure upgrades that will be required to reach full operational capability on the F-35 fleet.
In total, the auditor’s report says fielding the planned contingent of 88 stealth fighters will now cost Ottawa at least C$33 billion.
The auditor general notes that the RCAF lacks sufficient engineering personnel to service support equipment for both its current fleet of Boeing F/A-18A Hornets and new F-35As during the transition period between the two fighters.
A plan to address the longstanding issue of insufficient pilots has not yet been fully developed, according to the report. The RCAF is in the process of fielding an entirely new fleet of training aircraft, but has notably not yet identified an advanced jet trainer to prepare aviators to operate the complex F-35A.
Canada finalised terms for its F-35 programme in 2023, selecting the single-engined stealth jet to replace the RCAF’s ageing fleet of 66 Boeing F/A-18A fighters. The competitive acquisition programme was known as the Future Fighter Capability Project (FFCP), and saw the F-35 beat out the Saab Gripen E/F and newer F/A-18E/F Super Hornet.
Canadian defence minister David McGuinty is downplaying the rising costs, describing the increase as an unavoidable outcome of disruptions from the Covid-19 pandemic and the recent bout of inflation that hit the deeply integrated Canadian and US economies.
“In combination with increased global tensions and related impacts on the availability and demand for materials, we would not have been able to deliver the full scope of this project under our previous budget,” McGuinty said on 10 June.
The defence minister notes that Ottawa has taken steps to more closely monitor FFCP cost growth and has added more contingency funding in its acquisition projections to “better mitigate potential economic risks and uncertainty in the future”.
“It is critical to note that Canada needs fighter aircraft to protect the sovereignty of Canadian airspace and ensure the safety and security of Canadians,” McGuinty adds.
There has been a notable chorus of concern about the stealth fighter purchase in recent months, tied to provocative statements and actions toward Canada made by US President Donald Trump.
In addition to repeatedly expressing an interest in absorbing Canada into the USA and referring to former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as “governor” (a state-level leader in the American system of government), Trump has targeted Canada with heavy duties on cross-border trade.
American defence giant Lockheed assembles the majority of F-35 fighters in Fort Worth, Texas. The US Department of Defense is heavily involved in the fielding process for overseas customers, including in price negotiations, delivery schedules, pilot training and post-delivery sustainment.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who was swept into office riding a wave of anti-Trump sentiment in Canada, has directed the Department of National Defence to review the planned F-35 acquisition, including looking at alternative options.
However, the RCAF will field at least a portion of the 88 F-35s currently planned, for which Ottawa is already contractually committed.
“We’re taking delivery of a number of F-35s already under the existing contract,” Carney said in April.
“What we’re reviewing, in effect, is the back end of the contract to ensure that we’re getting value for money, that we’re sure that we’re maximising not just our ability to protect Canada, but the economic benefits here in Canada — and we are considering it in the context of alternatives,” he added.
The recent audit of the FFCP programme confirms that Canada has already committed $683 million for delivery of the first four jets and for long-lead items to support the production of another eight F-35As.
While indications suggest Canada will press ahead with the acquisitions, tensions between Washington and Ottawa have produced varying reactions from retired high-ranking RCAF officers.
In a March editorial, retired General Tom Lawson argued that abandoning the F-35 would harm Canada far more than it would the USA, both in terms of military capability and in the likely loss of lucrative supply contracts that dozens of Canadian aerospace firms won under the F-35 programme.
Lawson flew F/A-18s in the RCAF and later rose to be chief of Ottawa’s defence staff.
By contrast, former Canadian air force chief Lieutenant General Yvon Blondin has urged caution, describing the current F-35-only solution to fighter modernisation as “irresponsible” and likening it to “hoping for the best”.
“The reality is that, without US consent, no country can hope to operate the F-35 for long: the US controls its operating software, updates, upgrades, maintenance, parts and armament,” Blondin said in a LinkedIn post.
Both officers acknowledge the financial and logistical challenge that a small force like the RCAF would face in operating a mixed-fleet of multiple fighter types, should Ottawa opt to reduce its F-35 buy and also procure Dassault Aviation Rafales or Saab Gripen E/Fs.
