Honeywell expects the business jet sector will continue a strong upward trajectory in the coming decade as manufacturers hustle to fulfil demand by accelerating production of their newest ultra-long-range and ultra-expensive large-cabin jets.
In its 2025 Global Business Aviation Outlook, released on 13 October, Honeywell predicts aircraft manufacturers will deliver 8,500 business jets, worth $283 billion, over the next 10 years, an identical figure to that in last year’s forecast.
Honeywell strategic planning manager Kevin Schwab notes orders for business jets poured in during the Covid-19 pandemic, but supply and labour shortages hindered manufacturers’ ability to meet that demand.
Though such issues still constrain production today, manufacturers are making solid gains in ramping production, including of large-cabin models like the Bombardier Global 7500, Gulfstream G700 and G800, and Dassault Aviation Falcon 6X. Such large-cabin types, with list prices exceeding $70 million, represent an increasing share of deliveries, making them market drivers.
“These flagship platforms [are] what’s causing the value to outgrow the number of units,” Schwab says.
In 2026, the number of business jets delivered is set to eclipse 2019’s total, the pre-pandemic baseline, by 8%. But the value of those deliveries, owing to the large-cabin models, should be nearly 25% more than in 2019, adds Schwab.
Business jet flight hours are set to increase 3% year on year in 2025, largely a consequence of two operating segments: “private operators” (which can include owner-operators and small-to-medium-sized businesses) and fractional ownership providers. Meanwhile, corporate flight departments “continue to lag in flight activity as they seek to optimise various cost elements”, Honeywell says.
Fractional firms recently expanded rapidly and now have 1,300 jets in their fleets, up 65% since 2019. Of those, 80% are light, midsize and super-midsize jets, says the Honeywell Outlook, which is based on market analyses and surveys of operators.
More jets are on the way. Fractional player Flexjet this year ordered 182 Embraer aircraft and NetJets in 2023 disclosed plans to acquire up to 1,500 Textron Aviation Cessna Citations and up to 250 Embraers.
One-fifth of operators surveyed by Honeywell say they hold unfilled orders for at least one aircraft, and nearly half report planning to increase the size of their fleets. Operators say aircraft performance is a top purchase consideration but put significant weight also on advanced technologies like fly-by-wire flight controls and safety features and customer support.
“Specifically, what they are looking for, from new jets, is [aircraft-on-ground] response time and technical support,” Schwab says.
Honeywell says the USA’s new “bonus depreciation” tax provision, part of the One Big Beautiful spending and tax law signed by President Donald Trump in July, should “spur additional business aircraft purchase activity”. That provision, which existed previously but was being phased out, allows some owners to depreciate the entire cost of business aircraft in the year placed in service.
Honeywell expects North American buyers will account for roughly 70% of new jet deliveries over the next three years, followed by Europe (14%), Latin America (7%), the Asia-Pacific region (5%) and the Middle East and Africa (3%).
“The Middle East is poised for growth as positive regulatory changes and improvements to airport infrastructure will make it easier for business aviation entities to establish operations in and fly throughout the region,” Honeywell says.
