“Don’t go to bed angry,” is the advice commonly given to couples around the world.
An amended version of that age-old wisdom might be timely advice for Canada’s political leaders: don’t make fighter aircraft procurement decisions while angry.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney must soon choose whether to proceed with purchases of the US-made Lockheed Martin F-35A stealth fighters meant to replace the Royal Canadian Air Force’s (RCAF’s) aged and obsolete fleet of Boeing F/A-18A Hornets.
It is a decision he clearly would rather avoid.
With snow now falling in Ottawa, there is no sign of a promised review of the F-35 procurement programme, which the Carney government had said it would deliver by the end of summer.
It is a sign of how what was once a fairly run-of-the-mill and uncontroversial air force modernisation effort has exploded into one of the most heated political issues in the country.
And Canadians are angry.
Inflammatory “51st state” rhetoric about Canadian sovereignty and trade sanctions from US President Donald Trump and his advisers has enraged many Canadians, who have boycotted American products and reduced personal travel to the USA, according to Statistics Canada.
June polling conducted by the US-based Pew Research Center found the percentage of Canadians who view the USA favourably to be at the lowest level recorded since the question was first asked in 2002.
Carney, who had never before stood for election, was propelled into office by that angst, overcoming a substantial lead by the rival Conservative Party in the weeks leading up to the election.
Jumping from electoral politics, Canadians’ resentment found a new target in the arcane world of military procurement.
Canadian pollster Nanos Research in March found that three in five Canadians “support or somewhat support” cancelling the planned purchase of 88 F-35As and “buying a European fighter jet instead”.
Although a specific aircraft was not named in that poll question, Saab’s Gripen E/F has emerged as the leading contender to supplant the F-35 in Ottawa’s good graces.
Saab has enthusiastically leapt into the breach that Trump opened, floating the prospect of local production for both its Gripen fighter and GlobalEye airborne early warning and control system – based on the Bombardier Global 6500 airframe – in Canada.
Such a move would bring thousands of skilled jobs and produce a generational boost to the Canadian aerospace and defence industries.
Of course, those benefits do not come without a price. For starters, Canada has already irrevocably committed funds for its first 16 F-35s, meaning its only choices are to go all-in on the American jet or commit the RCAF to the costly and complex prospect of operating a mixed fleet.
Retired Canadian defence officials have for the most part lined up in opposition to the idea of dropping the F-35 and instead buying Gripens.
Retired pilots and generals have spent much of the past year penning editorials and lengthy LinkedIn posts extoling the advantages of the fifth-generation F-35 over the fourth-generation Gripen E.
Shortly after assuming command, the general in command of the RCAF told FlightGlobal in an interview that she is committed to “building a very modern fifth-generation air force”.
More recently, a dozen former senior RCAF officers sent a letter to Carney urging him to move forward with the full F-35 acquisition, according to reporting by Radio-Canada last week.
Reportedly among that group was retired General Tom Lawson, who during his career rose to be commander of the RCAF and eventually chief of the Canadian defence staff.
Although he did not confirm his signature is on the letter sent to Carney, Lawson in March authored an editorial for the National Post arguing that “cancelling the F-35 purchase threatens to hurt Canada much more than it would hurt the US”.
Even eight months later, Lawson appears to have zeroed in on the heart of the anti-F-35 argument – Canadians feel betrayed by the USA, and they want to hit back.
While the debate gets couched in terms of aircraft flyaway price, cost per flight hour, and even industrial sovereignty, the argument inevitably returns to anger with Washington and a need to assert greater independence from the American economy and military.
Emotion is at the heart of the argument being made by even credible proponents of dropping the F-35, such as former RCAF chief Lieutenant General Yvon Blondin, who recommended the Lockheed jet to the government of Prime Minister Stephen Harper in 2012.
In an essay posted to LinkedIn in March, Blondin argued that US control over the F-35’s software, life cycle updates and sustainment system poses a national security risk to Canada.
However, Blondin also acknowledged “there are currently no better performing alternatives to the F-35”. Instead, he argued there are “better trusted alternatives”.
Blondin advised deferring a decision on the full F-35 procurement until “this new world order” ushered in by Donald Trump’s re-election could be better assessed.
Although Canadian opinion of the political situation in Washington has certainly not improved over the ensuing eight months, there is little inclination that Trump would make good on any of the veiled threats to Canadian sovereignty made at the start of the year.
Such a risk is low enough that even sitting defence officials in Ottawa are tacitly speaking in favour of the F-35 and publicly citing Russia and China as Canada’s primary security threats.
With new buyers and repeat customers continuing to line up for first-time and additional orders, Washington and Lockheed will likely have little problem finding a home for any slots in the F-35 production line that could Canada abandon.
The Carney government’s reluctance to make public its official review of the F-35 programme almost certainly means that report contains the politically inconvenient truth now being raised by many of Canada’s own generals: there is no true substitute for the F-35 currently available.
In failing to acknowledge this reality, Ottawa risks cutting off its nose to spite its face.
Find all our defence coverage, including reporting from the Dubai air show last week, at the FlightGlobal defence home page.