China Southern Airlines will become a launch customer for Bombardier’s CSeries with an order for 50 of the type, analyst Jacques Kavafian of Research Capital predicts.

The deal will represent 25% of the over 200 CSeries orders expected to be won at the Farnborough air show by Bombardier, including potentially from Lufthansa, International Lease Finance and Qatar Airways, says Kavafian in his latest report. He adds that others could include Malaysian Airlines and additional Chinese operators.

Additionally, he forecasts, China Southern will acquire 50 Bombardier Dash 8 turboprops, bringing to 100 the carrier’s aircraft order with Bombardier, and marking the largest single order for the Canadian airframer from China.

Bombardier has said it will decide this year whether to launch the 110/130-seat CSeries, the fuselage of which will be manufactured by China Aviation Industries I (AVIC I) subsidiary Shenyang Aircraft (SAC).

"AVIC I’s involvement in the CSeries basically assures other Chinese airline orders for the aircraft," says Kavafian. The aircraft is expected to enter service in 2013.

Bombardier could not be immediately reached for comment.