The US Air Force faces a modernisation dilemma as it tackles the war against terror and the threat of ' near-peer' competitors
The armed service charged with harnessing the might of US air power is neither the most relevant instrument in today’s fight against insurgents and terrorists, nor apparently dominant enough to easily conquer tomorrow’s “near-peer” competitor.
It is this awkward paradox that fuels the sweeping modernisation dilemma facing the US Air Force. The recapitalisation of its fighter force is now in full swing, but faces a dramatic shift in direction. A similar redistribution may be in store for the US airlift and tanker fleet. Everywhere the choice seems a balancing act, mitigating the known deficiencies of air power facing commanders in Iraq while addressing the concerns of war-gamers thinking about a threat that looks a lot like China.
“Recent acquisitions of fighter aircraft and surface-to-air missiles by China, and to a lesser degree India, have fuelled some observers’ concerns that these countries may effectively challenge US air power in the future,” states a Congressional Research Service (CRS) report.
Doomsayers warn that rapidly developing China and India could fast become rivals to the USA for access to the world’s energy sources, a fear fuelled by record oil prices and the recent shortage scares prompted by the damage inflicted on US Gulf of Mexico oil production facilities by Hurricane Katrina.
With the US Department of Defense’s Quadrennial Defence Review evaluating the force structure needed to combat a near-peer threat – Pentagon-speak for China – Lockheed Martin seized the moment at last week’s Air Force Association convention to tout the wonders of fifth-generation fighters like its own F/A-22 Raptor and F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.
Lockheed’s own studies show a force of 250 F/A-22s would be needed to win a war in the Taiwan Straits, trying to justify the USAF’s dead-on-arrival plan to buy 381 of the $110 million fighters rather than terminate procurement after just 179 as the DoD plans.
The US manufacturer clearly sees China’s military build-up – which includes Russian Sukhoi Su-30 fighters and SA-10 long-range missiles – as embodying the Soviet threat the F/A-22 was originally intended to counter – advanced fighters operating jointly with sophisticated integrated air-defence systems.
The CRS notes some argue that “large numbers of high-capability aircraft are still necessary because Russian aircraft and surface-to-air missiles are available to potential adversaries of the USA and its allies. The demise of the Soviet Union does not mean the end of potential high-threat areas requiring advanced aircraft.”
But the CRS report also notes the dissenting opinion. “Alternatives would be to produce only limited numbers of these aircraft [the F/A-22 and F-35], while upgrading and extending the service lives of existing aircraft such as air force F-15Es and F-16Cs and navy and Marine Corps F/A-18C/Ds and F/A-18E/Fs.”
Although Boeing supplies one-third of the stealthy F/A-22, it prefers to defend the merits of the conventional F-15 and F/A-18. “What you really need is a large payload and you need persistence on the battlefield,” says George Muellner, president of Boeing Air Force Systems. “The F-15E is the longest-range, highest-payload fighter in the inventory.”
Designed for Cold War-style deep interdiction, the supersonic F-15E has forged an unlikely close air-support presence in Iraq, using its new Sniper targeting pod to perform the forward observer role once played by the binocular-toting backseaters of the slow-flying Rockwell OV-10 Bronco.
The USAF’s dogged commitment to low-observability-to-radar stealth is unique among world air arms and even among the aviation branches of the US Army and US Navy, both of which have abandoned troubled and costly stealth aircraft projects. Clearly, stealth supports the USAF’s doctrine of achieving overwhelming air superiority from the first day of a major conflict, when an enemy’s integrated air-defence network is likely to be intact and active.
But for all its stealthy capabilities, the F/A-22 has been unable to stay below the radar of DoD budget cutters and Congressional lawmakers, who between them have forced repeated delays and cutbacks on the programme because of its huge cost. With the Pentagon so focused on fighting today’s war in Iraq, it remains to be seen whether the threat of conflict with a near-peer nation – however conceptual or real – can rescue the Raptor.
Source: Flight International
