Airline cargo departments are looking forward with cautious optimism in 2011, after an October-to-November peak season that was not as hectic as in 2010, but at least did not signal a new downturn.
There were widespread reports at the start of the normal peak period that it was not materialising as expected, but, on the whole, carriers have reported a respectably strong October and November.
That impression is supported by International Air Transport Association figures for October, which showed a rise of 14.4% in traffic year-on-year.
Ram Menen, divisional senior vice-president cargo for Emirates, reports a good performance from all markets, but sees a slackening in Chinese exports, and a slight slowdown in European imports because of the debt crises there. He thinks that with inventories in the USA and Europe having been rebuilt earlier in the year, China's exporters are now in less of a rush to get goods to market and have been looking at sea or sea-air options instead.
However, Menen expects this to be temporary. "As inventory gets depleted and with new launches of electronic and IT-related products, we should see more cargo in the new year," he says.
A positive aspect of the recovery in air cargo to date has been that capacity has been kept in check. IATA says capacity increased 9.2% in the first 10 months of 2010 - well below traffic growth of 24%.
One reason for this could be a low level of new freighter deliveries and a delay in the delivery of the 747-8 Freighter, but Neel Shah, vice-president for cargo at Delta Air Lines, also points out that belly capacity growth has been kept in check by caution on the passenger side of the business. "Speaking for the passenger carriers, I can say we have learned our lesson on capacity," he says. "I hope that is also true of all the freighter operators."
Source: Flight International
