Increased production rates for Airbus and Boeing encourage systems supplier
Systems supplier Goodrich expects sales from new programmes, including the Airbus A380, Boeing 7E7 and Lockheed Martin Joint Strike Fighter (JSF), to exceed $600 million a year by 2009.
With Airbus and Boeing both increasing production rates, "we benefit no matter who builds the aircraft", chief executive Marshal Larsen told analysts at the company's annual investor conference on 15 November. Goodrich expects growth from in-production aircraft in 2005 and 2006, "after which the A380 and 7E7 kick in".
Commercial aircraft business accounts for a third of sales, with Airbus at 15% and growing. Goodrich equipment for the A380 is worth $6-8 million per shipset, and more than $6 billion over the programme's life, Larsen says. Equipment for the 7E7 is worth $2.6-3 million per shipset, with more selections pending, but more than $7 billion overall because of the larger number of aircraft expected to be sold.
Landing gear alone for the A380 - Goodrich's first for Airbus - is worth more than $3 billion in business, says airframe systems segment president John Grisk. The company also expects to sign a six-year, $1.5 billion contract with Boeing by year-end, extending to 2012 its landing-gear exclusivity on all but the 717 and 7E7.
The A380 flight-control actuation system programme - which was in "serious trouble" when TRW (Lucas) Aeronautical Systems was purchased in 2002 - has been turned around, says Grisk. But Goodrich will have to pay for retrofitting aircraft with redesigned motor drive electronics for the electro-hydraulic actuators before they enter service, which will hit returns next year, he adds.
Commercial aftermarket sales - another third of the total - are up 6%, fuelled by Goodrich's strong position with Airbus and Rolls-Royce. The heavy maintenance business, accounting for only 3% of sales but with 10% growth forecast, has rebounded strongly on outsourcing by US major airlines. "We are almost full up for 2005," says Larsen.
Goodrich expects to end 2004 with sales approaching $4.75 billion, up almost 8% from last year, and is projecting a similar increase next year, to revenues of $5-5.1 billion. Sales to Airbus and Boeing are forecast to rise by about 12%, with the business and regional aircraft market flat and overall commercial aftermarket sales growing about 5%. Military and space sales growth is expected to slow to the low single digits, but longer term Larsen points to the $1.7 million per shipset value of Goodrich equipment on the JSF.
GRAHAM WARWICK / WASHINGTON DC
Source: Flight International
