Honeywell predicts business jet deliveries will break the 1,000-aircraft mark for the first time next year, up from the record 850 shipments expected this year. With manufacturer backlogs approaching 2,500 aircraft, and order intake remaining strong, “2007 will likely be a banner year for the industry”, the aerospace supplier says.
Released as the National Business Aviation Association (NBAA) convention opened in Orlando, Florida, and regarded as the industry benchmark forecast, Honeywell’s 15th annual business aviation outlook projects deliveries of some 12,000 business jets worth $195 billion from 2006 to 2016.
Deliveries for the first half of this year are already up almost 26% over the same period in 2005, to 403 aircraft, says Honeywell, while orders are up 6.1%. Backlogs are estimated at 2,200-2,500 aircraft, and the company expects deliveries beyond 2007 to exceed 1,000 units a year for the balance of the decade, “with only modest cyclical perturbations”.
The near-term demand forecast for 2007-11 is for 3,600-4,000 aircraft, not including fractional operators, with North America accounting for about 61% or deliveries over the next five years. This is a lower-than-typical share of global demand, Honeywell says, with most manufacturers reporting that 50-75% of their new orders are coming from non-US customers.
Fractional operators still account for about 30% of the backlog, and are expected to take delivery of 85-120 aircraft a year throughout the forecast period. Sales of new ownership shares have flatted significantly since 2004, and net fractional shares have declined 11.1% from 2005 levels, but jet cards are supporting growth, says Honeywell.
Demand over the next five years is expected to be fairly evenly balanced across most business-jet segments, with medium and medium-large aircraft accounting for about 30%, light and light-medium 25%, and long and ultra-long range 21%. Over the full 2006-16 forecast period, Honeywell projects deliveries of more than 3,500 medium/medium-large aircraft, 3,250 light/light-medium, 1,600 long/ultra-long range, and 1,300 large business jets.
In the very light jet sector - which for Honeywell includes the Cessna Citation Mustang, Embraer Phenom 100 and HondaJet, but not the Adam A700 or Eclipse 500 – deliveries are expected to take off rapidly in 2007 and average just under 250 a year for the duration of the forecast period for a 2006-16 total exceeding 2,500 aircraft.
In the personal jet sector - which does include the Adam A700 and Eclipse 500, as well as the new CirrusJet and Diamond D-Jet – Honeywell forecasts demand for around 4,000 aircraft over the 10-year period. These are not included in its 2006-16 forecast of 12,500 deliveries. Also not included in the 10-year total are an expected 200 business jets based on commercial airliners, Honeywell says.
The full Honeywell forcast can be seen here
And here is all the news from the NBAA 2006 annual convention in Orlando.
Source: Flight International
