Programme delays for new commercial aircraft will continue to be the industry norm, says industry analyst Richard Aboulafia.
Aboulafia, Teal Group vice president of analysis, speaking at the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance conference in Seattle, Washington, says he forecasts first delivery of the Boeing 787 in December of this year, compared to the third quarter guidance offered by the airframer.
Boeing expects to deliver between 12 and 20 787s this year, whereas Teal's forecast sees just five handed over to airlines, followed by a more conservative production ramp up than the 10 aircraft per month expected by the end of 2013.
Boeing's delays to the 787 have stretched more than three and a half years from its original May 2008 target, amid supply chain woes and design changes.
Additionally, Aboulafia expects Airbus to incur a year and a half of delays to the A350, placing first delivery to launch customer Qatar Airways in 2015. Airbus recently pushed back the start of final assembly of the first A350-900 to the end of 2011 from the third quarter, citing a need for further design maturity.
For Bombardier's CSeries, a one year delay is now forecast as well, as Aboulafia cites risks associated with centre fuselage supplier China's Shenyang Aircraft Corporation and empennage supplier Alenia Aeronautica.
Bombardier expects entry into service of its CS100 in 2013.