The turmoil engulfing the Middle East could have knock-on effects for ongoing military tenders and aircraft deliveries according to defence contractors.
Popular uprisings have toppled the Hosni Mubarak government in Egypt and the regime of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia, while Muammar Gaddafi's hold over Libya has been loosened by a revolt in the country's east. There have also been protests in Algeria, Bahrain, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia and Yemen.
Other countries in the region have not seen any anti-establishment protests, but governments have been quick to offer limited reforms or fresh funds for social projects in a bid to stave off unrest.
Oil wealth in the region and the growing need for countries to replace their ageing military aircraft mean that these are highly lucrative potential markets both from a financial as well as strategic standpoint.
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It is still not clear if Egypt will receive some Lockheed Martin F-16s (above) and Airbus Military C-295 tactical transports that were due to be delivered in 2011 |
Industry officials attending IDEX 2011 in Abu Dhabi, none of whom would go on the record with their assessment, say that the situation is still fluid. "You can't predict what the political landscape will look like in the coming months. There could be a delay in the delivery of aircraft, the postponement of negotiations for contracts, or even new tenders," says an official from an unnamed US defence contractor.
There could be some immediate consequences. For example, it is still not clear if Egypt will receive some Lockheed Martin F-16s and Airbus Military C-295 tactical transports that were due to be delivered in 2011. Libya was also set to receive its Russian Yakovlev Yak-130 trainers - and possibly some Sukhoi Su-30s - this year.
Fighter requirements exist in almost all countries, with manufacturers such as Boeing, Dassault, Eurofighter, Lockheed and state-owned firms in China and Russia all keen to exploit the region's potential. There is also a big demand for military helicopters in the region. However, most of the negotiations for these contracts have been put on hold.
Much will depend on future government-to-government relationships. The Obama administration is reviewing weapons sales to countries in the region, while European countries are believed to be more cautious. Russia and China, on the other hand, are not too flustered yet, say officials from both countries.
"We don't know who we should be talking to - it is unclear who will be making the decisions. And if there is a change in government or policy, the requirements or terms could be altered," says a source from a European aerospace firm.
An official from a major US contractor is more sanguine. "We've been partners with many countries for many years. Governments may change, but contracts don't disappear."
Strategic interest will, ultimately, play a big part. As an official from China National Aero-Technology Import & Export, the country's lead agency for the export of military aircraft, points out: "It really does not matter who is in charge. As long as the government is friendly to China, we can do business."
Source: Flight International
