Continued growth of developing economies has led Boeing to tweak upwards its 20-year commercial aircraft market outlook.

The airframer now predicts that the world's airlines will need 44,040 commercial aircraft up to 2038.

Those aircraft would be worth $6.8 trillion, estimates Boeing. It puts the value of the aircraft services at $9.1 trillion over 20 years.

That brings to $16 trillion the 20-year value of the commercial aerospace markets in which Boeing competes.

The figures translate to a 3.4% annual jump in the world airline fleet. Asia-Pacific airlines are expected to generate some 40% of demand. Particularly strong interest is forecast from China, India and Indonesia, notes Boeing Commercial Airplanes vice-president of marketing Randy Tinseth.

Boeing predicts that passenger traffic, as measured in revenue passenger kilometres, will jump 4.6% per year until 2038.

Released at the Paris air show, the 2019 outlook is rosier than last year's, in which Boeing predicted that airlines would need 42,730 commercial aircraft, worth $6.3 trillion, by 2037.

"We see a market today that will continue to be more resilient than it was in the past. We have a market that we believe is sustainable from a growth perspective," states Tinseth.

The commercial aerospace industry, coming off nine years of profits and growth, is now entering an "unprecedented period", Tinseth says. He predicts the industry will benefit in the coming decades from continued travel affordability, business-model diversification (as demonstrated by the proliferation of discount carriers), and middle-class expansion in developing markets

"I see a market that is broader, deeper and more balanced than we saw in the past, and I see that as continuing," Tinseth says.

The 44,040 new aircraft Boeing predicts airlines will need by 2038 are made up of 32,420 single-aisles (74% of the total), 8,340 passenger widebodies (19%), 1,040 widebody freighters (2%) and 2,240 regional jets (5%).

Boeing predicts market demand for single-aisle aircraft alone will be worth $3.8 trillion over 20 years.

The company's proposed New Mid-market Airplane, should it be launched, could steal demand for narrowbodies and widebodies but will minimally affect overall fleet figures, Tinseth asserts.

Boeing's estimate of a $9.1 trillion 20-year commercial services industry includes an estimated $4.8 trillion from ground operations, $2.4 trillion from maintenance and engineering, $1.2 trillion from flight operations, $545 billion from marketing and planning and $155 billion for corporate and external services, it says.

Read all the latest news and information from the 2019 Paris air show on our dedicated page

Source: Cirium Dashboard

Topics