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FARNBOROUGH: Embraer raises long-term market forecast

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Embraer’s 20-year forecast for large regional jets predicts demand for 6,400 aircraft, up slightly on its projection last year of 6,350.

Covering the 2016-2035 period, the Brazilian manufacturer's Market Outlook, released today at the Farnborough air show, says 70-130 seats will be the fasting-growing of all segments. That includes 2,300 units in the 70-90 seat segment and 4,100 in the 90-130 seat market.

Of the total projected demand, growth will account for 63%, with the remaining 37% being replacement aircraft.

North America is predicted to take the most deliveries at 2,020, accounting for 31% of the total, followed by Asia-Pacific with 1,690 and Europe with 1,160.

Demand measured in RPKs is expected to grow at 4.7% annually by 2035, the report says, “fuelled by stronger domestic demand in advanced economies and improvements in the macro environment in a number of distressed economies in emerging markets”.

The report also cites the oil price as a key factor in the evolution of traffic and aircraft capacity over the next 20 years.

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