All too often, notes written by mechanics in aircraft log books do little to help carriers predict and avoid future delays and cancellations.
But consulting company PricewaterhouseCoopers says feeding log book information into predictive maintenance models can notably improve an airline’s ability to predict significant maintenance issues, PwC’s director of airline management consulting Rick Wysong tells Flightglobal.
“There just are not very many things out there that can allow you to save 10% to 15% of your maintenance delays and cancellations,” Wysong says. “From our testing, it looks like it’s actually doable.”
In 2014, PwC field tested with a major US carrier a predictive maintenance model that accounted for fault messages generated automatically by current-generation aircraft, and, importantly, log entries made by mechanics, Wysong says.
Wysong declines to name the carrier on grounds that it wishes to remain anonymous. He says, however, that PwC conducted the test on current-generation type aircraft and that the results were impressive.
The model predicted about 30% of the carrier’s maintenance-related delays and cancellations, and resulted in a “statistically significant” reduction in such incidents, he says.
The model is unique because it works with types of aircraft most airlines currently operate – not just the newest types outfitted with the most sensors, Wysong says. “It could be used on older aircraft that do not have extensive fault monitoring.”
Wysong says such models can be improved by tailoring them to a specific airline's operations, and he adds that the models can be calibrated to raise red flags only for specific faults that have a high likelihood of causing an operational impact.
Airlines should begin adopting predictive maintenance models now so that they are familiar with the technology when they acquire more-advanced aircraft, he says.
“Even if you believe it will work better [for] aircraft with more information, you need to develop your digital muscles so [that] you are ready to handle that increased volume of data,” he says.
PwC thinks airlines' heavy maintenance programmes could also benefit from analytics that incorporate notes from mechanics log entries, Wysong adds.
Source: Cirium Dashboard
