IATA expects the global airline industry to achieve its highest-ever profits in 2026, with European carriers having overtaken North American operators as the biggest contributors to the total.
Releasing its 2026 outlook on 9 December, the airline industry association forecasts a record-high industry net profit of $41 billion in 2026, up from $39.5 billion this year (itself an upgrade on IATA’s forecast in June for a $36.0 billion profit in 2025, on a “surprise” strong performance from air cargo and a weaker US dollar, which lowers costs for many airlines).
“That’s extremely welcome news considering the headwinds the industry faces,” says IATA director general Willie Walsh during the organisation’s Global Media Day in Geneva. He cites headwinds including supply-chain challenges, geopolitical conflict, “sluggish” global trade, and “growing” regulatory burdens.
“Airlines have successfully built shock-absorbing resilience into their businesses that is delivering stable profitability,” Walsh adds.
European carriers will contribute $14.0 billion of the net profit in 2026, IATA expects, versus $11.3 billion from North American carriers. European carriers are also ahead in IATA’s forecasts for this year, at $13.2 billion versus $10.8 billion respectively. That represents a shift from trends pre-2025, which saw North American carriers being the profit leaders.
| IATA profit forecasts 2025 and 2026 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Region | 2025 net profit (est) | 2026 net profit (est) |
| Africa | $0.2bn | $0.2bn |
| Asia-Pacific | $6.2bn | $6.6bn |
| Europe | $13.2bn | $14.0bn |
| Latin America | $2.5bn | $2.0bn |
| Middle East | $6.6bn | $6.8bn |
| North America | $10.8bn | $11.3bn |
| TOTAL | $39.5bn | $41.0bn |
Nevertheless, IATA continues to highlight the tight margins experienced by carriers, with the 2026 global net profit equating to a net margin of 3.9%, which would be below the pre-Covid high of 5%. Within the latest figure, Middle Eastern carriers are way ahead of other regions with a forecast profit per passenger in 2026 of $28.6, versus $10.9 in Europe and $9.8 in North America. At the other end of the range, African carriers are expected to achieve a profit per passenger of just $1.3, for a global average of $7.9, which would be flat year on year.
“Industry-level margins are still a pittance considering the value that airlines create by connecting people and economies,” says Walsh, who attempts to put the margins into context by claiming that Apple makes more margin on selling an iPhone cover than the $7.9 achieved per-passenger by airlines.
Industry revenues in 2026 are expected to be $1.05 trillion, up slightly on the $1.01 trillion forecast for this year – the first time the trillion-dollar level will have been passed.
The forecast operating profit of $72.8 billion in 2026 is up from $67.0 billion in 2025, and would represent a slightly improved operating margin of 6.9%.
Supply-chain challenges continue to help the industry achieve record-high load factors, with IATA forecasting 83.8% in 2026, slightly up on 2025.
Cargo volumes are expected to rise 2.4% in 2026.
