While there seems to be little doubt in the maintenance industry about a looming shortage of aircraft mechanics and licensed engineers in future, there are questions about how clearly the need for new staff can be forecast, particularly as the sector undergoes deep change and adapts to new generation aircraft.
Due to the growth in the aviation industry and the retirement of existing staff, Boeing estimates that around 650,000 technical employees will be required in the global MRO sector over the next 20 years, which equates to approximately 32,000 positions per annum.
In Europe alone, around 6,500 new mechanics and licensed engineers will be needed every year, which will add up to approximately 130,000 technical staff members over the next two decades.
Lufthansa Technical Training has calculated that maintenance providers in the Europe, Middle East and Africa region need to qualify around 31,500 employees due to market growth and fluctuation of existing staff over the next five years. Approximately 110,500 new staff members will be required on a global level during the same period, according to the German company.
However, Klaus Schmidt-Klyk, LTT's vice-president marketing, sales and business development, raised questions at Aviation Week's MRO 2011 conference in Madrid as to whether the future need for human resources can be so easily calculated based on the growing volume of aircraft and fluctuations in the current workforce.
He said that an expected shortage of technicians had been an industry topic throughout his 25-year career in the MRO sector. This prompted him to question whether there actually is such a lack of maintenance staff and whether other factors might be playing into the calculation too.
Schmidt-Klyk asked to what extent the optimisations in maintenance schedules for modern aircraft might influence any future requirement of technical staff. As the volume of maintenance work per flight hour has gradually decreased with the introduction of new aircraft models over the past decades, this will have had an alleviating effect on the need for new technical support staff.
He also wondered what effect the concentration of base maintenance providers on a limited number of global locations could have on the human resources in the industry.
Another point is the increasing co-operation and consolidation among airlines. Schmidt-Klyck asked whether airline alliances or other forms of partnerships could lead to a more efficient use of the MRO resources, indicating a potential reduction in the need for additional technical staff.
James Schaeffer, Boeing's manager for maintenance training regulatory approvals and standards, is sure though that "we do have a shortage coming". He argued that large MRO providers might not yet feel the urge to increase their training efforts as they recruit much of their talent from smaller operations such as regional aircraft maintenance companies. Those smaller firms do feel the pinch already, he added.
Source: Air Transport Intelligence news
