Europe risks losing its pre-eminent position in global aerospace – or even obsolescence – if it does not invest now to develop the technologies that will shape the sector’s future, industry leaders have warned.
Speaking at the Clean Aviation annual forum in Brussels on 18 March, Remi Maillard, executive vice-president of engineering at Airbus commercial aircraft and group head of technology, said Europe had become a sector leader due to the “performance and the technology of our products”, alongside the “competitiveness and resilience” of the continent’s supply chain.
But, he says, the “quest” to maintain that leadership position “will be quite a journey” given the threats Europe’s industry will face.
Europe’s industry has emerged “more vulnerable” from the Covid-19 pandemic, he says, while new market entrants such as China and India are posing fresh competitive challenges on top of existing rivals like the United States and Brazil. Meanwhile, breakthrough technologies – new materials, AI, and Quantum computing – are emerging which “will redefine the aviation industry”, he says.
“And these breakthroughs can be, will be, an opportunity if we invest early enough to catch the wave, but they can very well be a threat if we let competitors leverage them, fast track them into the market and make us obsolete,” he warns.
“I don’t need to remind anyone in this room the situation of colleagues and friends in the automotive industry.”
Hydrogen too has the potential to further reshape the sector and “it’s critical that we don’t let competitors lead this revolution”, he says.
Maillard says the “flagship” of Europe’s aviation industry is the A320 family and Airbus has now decided to “pioneer again by investing into new technologies to prepare for a successor”.
Developing that jet – known as the next-generation single-aisle (NGSA) – will be the “challenge of a generation”, he says.
However, Airbus’s goal is that it is not merely a good product but a “superior product”, underpinned by excellence in its industrial and support systems.
That vision will only be attained by a “comprehensive and competitive ecosystem” – including the wider industry, regulators and public sector, working together “towards a single objective – to retain and push further our European leadership claim”, he says.
He says the development of the NGSA – tipped to arrive in the second half of the next decade – must “build on the foundations” laid by the EU’s Clean Aviation and SESAR air traffic management initiatives.
It will be “vital” to “maintain and enhance” such public-private partnerships “to secure the future of Europe’s aviation and aerospace industry”, says Maillard, who is co-chair of Clean Aviation’s governing board.
“We are at a very crucial juncture of the aviation industry – our actions today will define the next decades of our industry and our continent,” he says.
“Failing to act with unity and coherence risks a perfect storm where high production costs collide with a slow transition to new technologies.”
Clean Aviation’s current funding runs until 2027, with the European Commission currently working on the next multi-annual funding framework – essentially the EU’s budget – for the 2028-2034 period; sign-off is due in the third quarter of 2027.
Axel Krein, Clean Aviation executive director, sees the Commission as keen to agree a “new aviation partnership”, one centred on “moonshots” such as the decarbonisation of the sector.
But rather than just focusing solely on commercial aviation, Krein believes Clean Aviation’s successor will look at the entire scope of the industry – from drones or advanced air mobility solutions at one end to long-haul jets at the other and everything in between; anything the Commission believes the continent can lead in.
On top of which, the scope of the programme will likely grow beyond Clean Aviation’s technology readiness level (TRL) 6 limit – funding products all the way to full industrialisation and serial production, or TRL9.
“It is a very, very significant change in comparison to what we have been doing today. We can be proud of what we have achieved but it is not enough to stay competitive,” says Krein.
“Ecosystems in other parts of the world are catching up and if Europe wants to maintain its position or improve it the focus needs to be different.”
Such a move would address what he calls the “valley of death” – the gap between successfully demonstrating a technology and its commercial exploitation.
Bringing several new technologies – structures, engines, electrification – together on a new aircraft carries “enormous risk”, he says, and a mechanism to “negotiate that risk is exactly what’s missing”. Building full-scale prototypes earlier in the process will also help to “de-risk” aircraft developments, he argues.
In addition to a likely change in scope, Clean Aviation’s successor will also have to pivot to a more top-down approach. Whereas its projects are currently technology driven, in future they are more likely to start with a platform at a desired performance level and “then ask what kind of technology it will need, at what maturity level, and at what time”.
It will also likely face a significant increase in budget. Clean Aviation has been working with a total funding pot of €4.1 billion ($4.7 billion) – split between €1.7 billion from the EU and €2.4 billion from the private sector.
But the Aviation Research and Innovation Strategy, jointly developed with SESAR and other stakeholders and presented to the Commission last year, estimated that €66 billion will be required by the industry between 2028 and 2034 to “maintain Europe’s technological edge”, including for the modernisation of air traffic management.
Of this total, €22.5 billion should come from the EU and the remainder from national initiatives and the private sector, the document suggests.
However, with such a broad scope of aircraft likely to be included in its remit, Krein is not convinced even that figure will be enough: “It will not finance everything,” he says.
Priorities will have to be set in a way that provides Europe with the “opportunity to lead”, says Krein, adding: “It’s about securing jobs and creating new jobs – that’s the currency we are speaking about.”
