Thirty years ago this week, Richard Nixon made his historic visit to a very cold China. The Beijing temperature perfectly mirrored Sino-US relations at the height of the Cold War.
Last week, when George W Bush made his Chinese expedition, the response was radically different. Bush's address on values, democracy and open society was broadcast live to a Chinese audience – unheard of in the days of Seventies censorship. China watchers saw it as a bold move on the part of the Chinese leadership and one that bodes well for wider relations across Asia.
Relations
In coming decades, stability – or the lack of it – in Asia will be dictated by the nature of Sino-US and Sino-Japanese relations, says Prof Han Sun-Joo, professor of Political Science, Korea University and former Korean minister of Foreign Affairs.
Addressing an audience of around 300 representing the region's top military brass, the world's media and delegates from Asian Aerospace 2002, he stressed the significance of Bush's Beijing visit.
"Something extraordinary happened. The willingness of the leadership to allow live broadcast shows a new confidence in China's approach to the US."
There are major areas of disagreement between the two nations which have to be addressed, says Prof Han, but there are hopeful signs. "The Chinese response to the ‘Axis of Evil' speech was interesting. President Jiang Zemin didn't denounce the speech but rather advised dialogue."
Prof Wang Jisi, director of the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, picked up on the issue of confidence in his address.
"We have gained experience of dealing with different economic systems in Hong Kong and Macau and again that gives us increased confidence in dealing with the situation in Taiwan. The way the relationship with the US is being managed, much better than even a couple of years ago with the Belgrade Embassy bombing, adds to our confidence in dealing with Taiwan," he adds.
There are a raft of issues which the two nations will struggle to address. These include the stance China takes on relations with and between North and South Korea as highlighted by President Bush last week.
Worries
A hawkish US representative to the conference, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Peter Brookes, didn't let the opportunity pass to restate the Pentagon's worries. "We're concerned by a few things and monitoring them. Ballistic missile build-up in the Straits of Taiwan and nuclear modernisation and proliferation are problems. Much of the future relationship is up to China," he says.
Brookes also goes to lengths to define the new approach to security dictated by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. "We've moved from a threat-based to a capability-based approach. We have to plan for a wide spectrum of capabilities and contingencies and prepare ourselves to fight enemies who are eager to inflict mass destruction."
While much of the conference's attention was directed at military responses, a plea for restraint was injected into proceedings by former Thai foreign minister Dr Surin Pitsuwan. Quoting Machiavelli, he stressed the danger of proliferation.
Military
"Since 11 September the battlefield has changed and the paradigm of security has changed. It's no longer about narrow abstract national securities. But the war against terrorism cannot be fought solely with military might," he says.
"There is a sense of marginalisation in the region. Not all are sharing in the rising tide of prosperity that the Tsunami of globalisation is bringing to the region. This is an issue that we must address.
"We must work toward shared values. Asia is such a diverse region it's difficult to see a set of common values. But we must fight the war economically. We must work to increase trade exchange and investment opportunities."
Source: Flight Daily News