New design aircraft and propulsion systems, such as the Boeing 787 twinjet and Pratt & Whitney geared turbofan (GTF) engine, respectively, will help to soften the blow of the forthcoming downturn in the aerospace industry, Aerospace Industries Association (AIA) president and CEO Marion Blakey says.
The trade group expects sales to reach $214.4 billion next year "a very modest increase", said Blakey at AIA's annual year-end review and forecast luncheon in Washington DC.
But the industry "is likely to run short of momentum in 2011", she says.
Overall civil aviation sales are expected to suffer "as conditions continue to worsen for helicopters and business and regional aircraft", says Blakey.
"Additionally, by this time, the moderate improvements in defence procurement will not be enough to compensate for the declines in aerospace sectors."
Nonetheless, whatever down cycle there will be in the next 18 months wont' be "the same sustained downturn" that was experienced in the 1990s, says Blakey.
"We believe the valley at the bottom of this cycle will be relatively shallow. Why? The pipeline is primed. Never before has civil aviation had such as game-changer like the 787 ready to enter the market right when it is needed most. Other considerations are the resilient singe-aisle market and the considerable amount of pent-up replacement demand, which could be driven higher if fuel costs surge."
Speaking to ATI on the sidelines of the event, Blakey also cited the GTF - and open rotor technology - as among the population systems promising 20%-plus reductions in fuel consumption and emissions "so those kinds of things give me a lot of confidence".
Meanwhile, AIA is reporting total aerospace sales in 2009 will be slightly more than $214 billion, a record for the sixth straight year. Military aircraft leads the growth curve while civil aircraft, missiles and the space sectors also posted increases.
Despite the pending down cycle, AIA is optimistic about the future.
Bottom line, says Blakey: "The aerospace industry is sound and able to absorb some punishment from the economy."
Source: Air Transport Intelligence news
