Russia’s government has reduced its forecast for the number of commercial aircraft its aerospace industry will produce by the end of the decade.

The government had indicated in June 2022 that it would turn out 1,036 commercial aircraft, including 270 Yakovlev MC-21-310s and 142 of the domestically-modified SJ-100 variant.

But a revised forecast for May 2024 shows that the total number of aircraft has fallen to 994, as a result of adjustments regarding the types being manufactured.

While the number of MC-21s and SJ-100s remains unchanged, the schedule has slipped by around two years – the new forecast indicates nine MC-21-310s will be produced in 2025 while the first 30 SJ-100s will be built in 2026.

tu-214-c-united aircraft

Source: United Aircraft

Russia’s latest forecast indicates higher serial production of Tu-214s

The number of Tupolev Tu-214s in the plan has risen from 70 to 115, with yearly production increasing from 10 to 28 aircraft, and the list also includes 14 Ilyushin Il-96-300 widebodies.

These aircraft will demand over 1,100 Aviadvigatel PD-8, PD-14 and PS-90 engines.

But there is a reduction in Ilyushin Il-114-300 output from 70 to 51, with initial manufacture delayed two years to 2026.

Serial production of two other under-development turboprops, UZGA’s 44-seat TVRS Ladoga and its LMS-901, have been pushed back respectively to 2028 and 2025.

The 2022 forecast featured 178 Aircraft Industries L-410s but the programme has since been acquired by Czech interests.

But a new aircraft type – the twin-engined LMS-192 Osvey – is listed in the latest outlook, following a joint agreement between Russian and Belarusian firms in April. The outlook states 158 of the type will be produced by 2030.