AeroStrategy's analysis of the impact of high fuel prices, recessionary pressures and the ongoing airline fleet restructuring on the $45 billion air transport MRO market reveals that in recent months, more than 25 different airlines have announced the grounding of just over 610 aircraft - about 3.2% of the active global fleet.

The bulk of those grounded are older aircraft, because of their higher fuel burn characteristics, with 67% being older variants of the 737, together with MD-80s and McDonnell Douglas DC-9s.

The retirement of ageing aircraft from the active fleet will reduce the global annual spend on aircraft maintenance by $1.35 billion, around 3% of the total market, according to aerospace consultancy AeroStrategy.

And, if fuel prices continue to remain high, 1,200 aircraft could ultimately be taken out of service, reducing spend on maintenance, repair and overhaul services by about $2.8 billion (6%).

Around 80% of aircraft being taken out of service were flying within the North American fleet, accounting for almost 7%. MRO market growth will reduce from AeroStrategy's baseline prediction of a 3.1% compound annual growth rate by 0.9% (to 2.2%) for the next two years.

In addition, recessionary pressure will hit growth, although the impact will be offset by the continuing strength in developing regions "With so much uncertainty in the airline sector, the phones are ringing off the hook as market analysts and business planners are quizzed by corporate management," says AeroStrategy's David Stewart.


 © Boeing
DC-9s to be phased out


Source: Flight International