AlliedSignal Aerospace forecasts that deliveries of business jets will peak next year, but will remain at or near record levels before climbing again towards the end of the next decade. The company projects deliveries of 6,800 aircraft, worth nearly $89 billion, between 2000 and 2010, in a market survey released at this week's National Business Aviation Association (NBAA) convention in Atlanta, Georgia.

According to the survey, the purchase expectations of over 1,000 corporate flight departments in the Americas and Europe show that manufacturers' efforts to stimulate demand by launching new and derivative aircraft is paying dividends. Most flight departments surveyed have accelerated plans to replace or expand their fleets, AlliedSignal says, citing the improved comfort and performance of the latest aircraft.

AlliedSignal's outlook for 1999-2003 is for deliveries of 2,900-3,300 aircraft, 24% higher than the figure forecast last year and an increase of 59% over the previous five years, during which 1,800 business jets were delivered. "New models accounted for nearly 40% of all jets mentioned for purchase during the next five years," the company says.

The continued growth of fractional ownership is boosting sales, but AlliedSignal notes that participation by traditional corporate operators "remains relatively limited". The survey "noted a continued small increase in fractional interest from traditional flight departments as a supplement, but levels remain too low to indicate any significant shift in purchasing patterns".

The USA will remain the major market, AlliedSignal forecasts, but its dominance is expected to decline over the next five years. Purchase expectations in Europe have reached record highs because of the economy and regulatory changes, the company says, while improving economies and political stability have boosted the expectations of Latin American operators.

The Asian business jet fleet is virtually static, AlliedSignal says, but it expects an overall 5% annual growth rate up to 2010.

Expectations out to 2010 are:

• 170 corporate-configured airliners (Airbus A319CJ and BBJ), worth $7.6 billion;

• 886 jumbo and global aircraft (Dassault Falcon 900EX, Bombardier Global Express, Gulfstream IVSP/V), with a near-term peak in deliveries;

• 660 large jets (Falcon 2000 Challenger 604);

• 1,700 medium and medium/large aircraft (Hawker 800XP, Citation Sovereign, Continental, Hawker Horizon and Galaxy);

• 2,400 light and light-medium types (Learjet 31A/45 Citation Excel and Bravo);

• 1,200-plus entry level aircraft (Sino Swearingen SJ30-2, Premier 1, Citation CJ1/11).

Source: Flight International