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Further encroachment by Europe on US market share is predicted in a new survey of world aircraft production prospects for the coming decade.

The survey, published today by the US-based Teal Group, looks at the total civil and military market for the period 1996-2005.

The company's first annual world aircraft production forecast predicts that while the US will maintain the largest share of the world aviation market, it will drop slightly, from 61.9% to 58.6% by 2005. The report argues that the beneficiaries will be European manufacturers, who will see their portion of the total market increase from 31.7% to 36.2%. The ‘Rest of the World' total will drop from 6.4% to 5.2%.

Throughout the decade, it predicts that some 25,830 aircraft of all types, worth around $625.9 billion, will be manufactured.

Of that total, some 5622 will be commercial jet transports valued at $343.7 billion. Other categories and their forecast values over the decade are: 7647 helicopters ($41.1 billion), 4331 business aircraft (($39.3 billion), 655 military transports ($35.6 billion) 2939 regional aircraft ($27.4 billion), 130 special mission aircraft ($20.3 billion) and 1589 trainers and light attack aircraft ($10.5 billion).

The report also predicts the disappearance of one of the best-known names in aviation.

It predicts that by 2005, the French government's recently-announced decision "to arrange a shotgun marriage between Aerospatiale and Dassault" will have produced an organisation that "will replace McDonnell as world aircraft producer number two, partly due to the demise of the latter company's Douglas unit."

This produced a swift response from Douglas (see separate box).

The report says that US prime manufacturers will continue to build about 60% of the world's aircraft.

In Europe, the report predicts that the ex-Soviet aerospace industries will "finally make some kind of recovery from their downward spiral."

Secondly, several major European military projects, such as Eurofighter EF2000, and Rafale, will by then be in full production.

It forecasts a bleak future for the Rest of the World manufacturers, with one exception.

It believes Bombardier will prosper.









Source: Flight Daily News