Boeing has reduced the growth forecast in its latest long-term market outlook as an improvement in the productivity that airlines are achieving in their fleets has an impact on demand.
Concerns over infrastructure constraints and the increasing impact of environmental pressures will also have a bearing on demand at the far end of the airframer's 20-year forecast.
Boeing sees global demand for 28,600 new aircraft over the next two decades. Although this is a 5% increase on the 27,200 aircraft forecast last year, it is largely due to its inclusion for the first time of an assessment of demand for Russia and the CIS, says Boeing Commercial Airlines vice-president marketing Randy Tinseth.
"We see demand for around 1,060 aircraft for the CIS worth $70 billion," he says. He adds that Boeing now has included the CIS in its Boeing forecast as "for the first time we see some stabilisation in the region, and we now have good reliable data".
Tinseth points out that without the injection of 1,000 CIS aircraft, the latest forecast shows "little if any growth".
"We've taken a year of growth out of our forecast due to the more efficient use that airlines are making of their aircraft," says Tinseth. "We're seeing some up-gauging in terms of aircraft size, and airlines have worked out how to get very high load factors and utilisation out of their aircraft, and we've built this productivity into our model."
Boeing forecasts a 5% average annual increase in passenger growth over the next 20 years, but this will be differ between the short and long term, says Tinseth.
"Growth will run above the 5% trend line during the first 10 years due to increasing liberalisation etc. It will then fall below the trend line in the second 10 years, due to reduced liberalisation and the possible impact of infrastructure and environmental constraints towards the end of the forecast."
Correction: in last week's Flight International we reported that since the Airbus A380's production delay, the Boeing 747 had outsold its rival by 87 to 16. A380 orders were in fact minus 16. We are happy to set the record straight.
For more information about Boeing 747 production and orders please visit our 747 page
Source: Flight International