The latest quarterly Flight Ascend Consultancy commercial market webinar on 22 September featured presentations on the supply and demand dynamic, mid-life aircraft, Airbus A320neo values and lease rates, plus value forecasting precision.

Passenger traffic appears to be slowing, load factors have peaked but quarter two airline results showed continued strength. 2016 orders also look to be slowing as book-to-bill reduces. We appear to be moving into a phase where supply is ahead of demand – what does this mean for the market?

The fleet dynamics in the continuing low fuel price environment are reviewed, especially the impact on mid-life aircraft, retirements and storage rates.

With A320neo deliveries now building, how are values and lease rates performing? The longer term outlook for both neo and Max is considered.

Flight Ascend Consultancy and its predecessors have been forecasting aircraft values under the Base Value definition since the concept first emerged in the mid-1990s. How do we test the precision of our forecasting accuracy and what are some of the results. What really is Base Value and does inflation exist in aircraft values?