Recruitment markets will expand significantly in the UK over the next 12-18 months, as GDP growth of nearly 3% a year in 2004 and 2005 is expected, says economist Bryan Finn.

The Iraqi war and SARS conspired to make 2003 another difficult year for world aviation. But the market is recovering fast - 2005 and 2006 are looking to be strong growth years, with further increases of around 7% a year.

The world economy is expanding at around 5% a year, up from an average growth of just under 4% in 2003 as a whole. The world's largest economy, the USA, grew by 5% in the first quarter of this year.

The Asian economies are all enjoying rapid growth in the first half of 2004 and the Americas as a whole are experiencing a bout of economic prosperity.

The only region not to revel in the upturn in the world economy is the heartland of continental Europe. The Eurozone economies grew by a lacklustre 1.3% in the first quarter of 2004.

The revival has had a marked impact on the recruitment market. Over the past three years, recruitment markets across the world have suffered as the world economy has continued to under perform.

In the UK alone, it is estimated that nearly 2 million jobs were lost between 2001 and 2003 through technological advances and changing in working practices, and a further 250,000 jobs disappeared through outsourcing to countries with low labour costs. The economy's expected growth is likely to start compensating for these underlying trends.


Source: Flight International