Major fleet changes planned by US airlines for the coming years could create operational headaches as new types are integrated and existing aircraft undergo cabin modifications, warns an industry consultant.
To head off potential operational problems, carriers must ensure they co-ordinate fleet plans closely with their maintenance divisions and make the most of operational data, Fred Cleveland, managing director of PwC's transportation and logistics practice, tells Flightglobal.
It's a concept Cleveland calls a "system approach", and one he says US carriers now have the financial resources to implement.
"This is a giant systems engineering problem-solving exercise," said Cleveland ahead of speaking at IATA's World Maintenance Symposium in Miami.
"Marketing guys understand the [investment] return, but maintenance guys are good at understanding maintenance implications," says Cleveland, formerly executive vice-president of operations at WestJet and chief operating officer of American Eagle Airlines.
Cleveland notes that in the coming years US airlines plan to take delivery of thousands of new aircraft while also aggressively updating their aircraft cabins and in-flight entertainment systems.
Between now and 2025, North American carriers will take delivery of some 4,100 aircraft, most of which will replace existing types, predicted consultancy Cavok in a forecast released earlier this year.
The number of aircraft in the fleet of those carriers will increase annually at a rate of about 0.9%, from 7,420 aircraft in 2015 to about 8,142 in 2025, Cavok foresees.
Meanwhile, carriers are updating their cabins.
United Airlines expects to have by the end of 2016 equipped more than 200 narrowbodies with new premium seats, and American Airlines is adding 10 seats to each of its Boeing 737-800s while also updating the cabins of its Airbus A319s operated by subsidiary US Airways.
Likewise, JetBlue Airways and Alaska Airlines are equipping their aircraft with more seats, and Air Canada is adding roughly 100 seats to its Boeing 777s and reconfiguring older 767s and A319s for service with its low-cost subsidiary Rouge.
While just a few years ago carriers planned to keep IFE systems in service for up to a decade, airlines are now replacing systems every four of five years, says Richard Wysong, PwC's director of transportation and logistics consulting.
Wysong notes that customers increasing view in-flight technology the way they view Apple iPhone technology: they expect it to be updated every few years.
"The benchmark has changed for the consumer, and the airlines are painfully trying to adapt," he says.
"Leading carriers are involving all the stakeholders in making these cabin decisions," Cleveland adds.
Maintenance departments already have complex plans that account for scheduled and unscheduled maintenance, Cleveland notes.
Now, however, those plans must be modified to account for a wave of new aircraft deliveries and a surge in cabin upgrades – all while maintaining an efficient operation and high aircraft utilisation and dispatch rates, Cleveland says.
In the past, cash-strapped carriers often lacked the resources needed to fully develop and executive such plans, and operations people bore the brunt of resulting problems.
But times have changed as airlines have become profitable, he says.
"Today, we are playing offense and thinking creatively and differently. The opportunity is huge and we need to seize it properly and have this evidence-based decision making being used," says Cleveland.
Source: Cirium Dashboard
