Honeywell's 10-year business jet delivery forecast slips to 7,600

Honeywell has adjusted downwards its ten-year new business jet delivery forecast, although it still expects a bump in 2019 deliveries thanks to entry into service of new models.

The company's latest Global Business Aviation Outlook report also predicts an increase in demand for used business jets.

Buyers will take delivery of an estimated 7,600 new business jets, worth $248 billion, between 2020 and 2029, according to Honeywell's latest forecast.

The forecast equates to 2-3% annual growth – in line with expected global economic trends.

The latest 10-year delivery estimate is down about 1% from the 7,700 business jet deliveries, worth $251 billion, that Honeywell predicted for the 2019-2028 period in its 2018 forecast.

Despite the slight downward adjustment, Honeywell predicts business jet deliveries in 2020 will jump 7% year-on-year.

"The business jet industry is expected to see strong growth in the short-to-medium term, supported by several new airplane models coming to the market," Honeywell says in a media release.

Several manufacturers have brought new aircraft to market in recent months, including Bombardier (Global 5500 and 6500), Gulfstream (G500 and G600) and Textron Aviation (Cessna Citation Longitude).

“We are confident that these new and innovative aircraft models will support solid growth in the short term and have a continuing impact on new business jet purchases in the mid- and long-term," says Honeywell president of Americas aftermarket Heath Patrick.

The report notes buyers "continue to focus on larger-cabin aircraft classes… which are expected to account for more than 71% of all expenditures of new business jets in the next five years".

A survey associated with Honeywell's report found that aircraft operators globally anticipate replacing 32% of their aircraft with used jets during the next five years, up eight percentage points from last year's survey.

"The significant increase in purchase plans for used jets in this year’s survey could indicate an anticipation from respondents that with the expected increase in new aircraft deliveries in the short term, a greater number of young used aircraft will be available for sale at very good prices," Honeywell says. "Survey results show a higher-than-average transfer of demand from the new to the used market from operators that typically purchase new jets."

The survey found a decline in the number of aircraft that buyers in North America and Europe expect to purchase in the next five years.

North American operators anticipate acquiring, within five years, new aircraft equal to 15% of their current fleet – down two percentage points from last year's survey.

That figure is 28% for European operators, down five percentage points year-on-year, Honeywell's survey reveals.

"Operators are facing a slow economic growth environment and the uncertain effects of Brexit," says Honeywell of the European market.

However, within five years Asia-Pacific buyers anticipate acquiring new aircraft equal to 15% of their current fleets, up three percentage points from last year's survey.

Honeywell anticipates North American operators will acquire 60% of new business jets acquired globally in the next five years, with European operators taking 19%.

Some 1,600 corporate flight departments globally participated in Honeywell's survey, the company says.

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