Boeing has released a 20-year forecast that predicts 41,030 aircraft will be delivered through 2036, implying a yearly average exceeding 2,000 deliveries for the first time.
The commercial market outlook for 2017 to 2036 released today continues Boeing's optimistic forecast global traffic and aircraft delivery growth.
In the 2017 outlook, 1,410 aircraft are added over the 20-year forecast period compared with last year's assessment, which anticipated 39,620 deliveries through 2036.
As usual, single-aisle demand dominates the outlook, with Boeing estimating 29,530 aircraft deliveries.
"Single-aisle airplanes are the backbone of the low-cost business model strategy that is growing around the world," notes the airframer. "In addition, strong replacement needs in more mature aviation markets and robust overall growth in emerging markets are driving increased demand for single-aisle airplanes."
Boeing divides the outlook for twin-aisles into three categories, but overall they account for 9,130 projected deliveries through 2026 in total. Within the twin-aisle sector, demand for small single-aisles, representing 787-sized aircraft, leads the category with 5,050 aircraft. Deliveries of 777- and 747-sized passenger aircraft amount to 3,160 over the 20-year period.
For the first time, Boeing has split off dedicated freighters as a separate category in the commercial market outlook. The company estimates 920 deliveries of dedicated freighters through 2036.
The commercial market outlook offers a bleak assessment of the very large aircraft category, although the category isn't singled out in Boeing's forecast. Deliveries of passenger-carrying 747-8s will be "just a handful going forward", mainly to VIP customers, says Randy Tinseth, vice-president of marketing for Boeing Commercial Airplanes.
Included in the outlook is Boeing's assessment that customers will need 4,000-5,000 aircraft in a new category in the middle of the market, Tinseth says. Boeing has proposed the 200-270-seat New Midsize Airplane (NMA) with up to 5,000nm range.
Source: Cirium Dashboard