Strong growth is expected across the light, medium and large-cabin business aircraft sectors over the next 20 years, propelled by “long-term market drivers” such as wealth creation, expanding globalisation of trade, replacement aircraft and the increasing adoption of business jet use in high-growth economies including China, Russia and India. These are the projections in Bombardier’s latest industry market forecast.
Between 2014 and 2033 the Canadian airframer forecasts deliveries of 22,000 business jets worth $617 billion across the three segments in which it competes with its Learjet, Challenger and Global families. This tally consists of 9,200 deliveries worth $264bn between 2014 and 2023, and 12,800 deliveries worth $353bn from 2024 to 2033, says Bombardier.
Industry deliveries are expected to increase slightly this year, the airframer predicts, driven by the introduction of new aircraft programmes including the super-midsize Challenger 350, which entered service last month. “Business aircraft orders, however, are expected to remain challenging in 2014,” Bombardier continues, “but projected to improve beginning in 2015”.
Conditions in the light market remain fragile and the sector’s recovery will lag behind the medium and large categories, says the forecast. “In 2004, the light category represented about 50% of overall deliveries. Going forward, it is forecast to generate a total of 9,100 deliveries from 2014 to 2033, representing 41% of overall industry unit deliveries. These are valued at $105 billion – 17% of the overall delivery revenues over the forecast period,” says Bombardier.
In contrast, the midsize category is predicted to turn around quickly, generating 7,650 deliveries – 35% of overall industry unit deliveries – between 20014 and 2033. “These deliveries are valued at $226 billion, representing 37% of the overall delivery revenues forecast during this 20-year period,” says the airframer.
However, the large-cabin aircraft segment is expected to experience the fastest percentage growth rate of the three categories over the forecast period, generating a total of 5,250 deliveries – 24% of overall industry unit deliveries. These deliveries are valued at $286 billion, representing approximately 46% of the total delivery revenues during the forecast timeframe.